Could Hurricanes go unbeaten and not make ACC title game? What tiebreakers reveal
Four Atlantic Coast Conference teams -- Miami, Clemson, SMU and Pittsburgh -- enter the final month of the season undefeated in conference games.
Pittsburgh must still visit SMU and host Clemson. But the Hurricanes and Clemson and SMU don’t play each other.
So could Miami be left out of the ACC title game if UM, Clemson and SMU finish undefeated in the conference?
That’s unlikely.
An ACC official confirmed on Sunday that if UM, Clemson and SMU win thei remaining conference games to each finish 8-0 in the conference, the tie would be broken by the league’s fifth tiebreaker --- winning percentage of conference opponents in conference games only. That favors teams whose ACC opponents have the best cumulative records.
UM’s full slate of eight conference opponents are 16-22. Clemson’s eight ACC opponents are 16-21. And SMU’s eight ACC opponents are 13-24.
So by virture of that tiebreaker, UM and Clemson would meet in the Dec. 7 ACC championship game in Charlotte if all three teams win out.
Could SMU jump Miami? That’s unlikely. If Miami and SMU finish unbeaten, you can add four losses to each of their opponent’s records, making Miami’s opponents 16-26 and SMU’s 13-28, without other results yet factored in.
It would take improbable circumstances for SMU opponents to still somehow finish with a better record than Miami’s opponents.
Keep in mind that non-conference games have no impact on these ACC tiebreakers.
Though Pittsburgh’s ACC opponents have an 18-17 conference record, there would be no possible three-team tie involving an unbeaten Pittsburgh and unbeaten Miami, so the Canes would not be at risk of being left out of the ACC title game in that scenario. That’s because Pittsburgh would need to beat SMU and Clemson to finish unbeaten.
UM (4-0 in the ACC) closes with games at home against Duke (noon Saturday on ABC), at Georgia Tech, home to Wake Forest and at Syracuse.
Clemson (5-0 in the ACC) closes with games home against Louisville, at Virginia Tech and at Pittsburgh. The Tigers then finish their schedule against The Citadel and South Carolina, but those opponents don’t count in the ACC’s tiebreaker mechanisms because they’re non-conference games.
SMU (4-0 in the ACC) finishes the season with home games against Pittsburgh and Boston College, then play at Virginia and finish at home against California.
Pittsburgh (3-0 in the ACC) has games remaining at SMU, then home to Virginia and Clemson, then at Louisville and at Boston College.
In three-team ACC tiebreakers, the first four tiebreakers either wouldn’t apply or wouldn’t settle anything regarding a potential UM/Clemson/SMU tie for first in the conference.
Those first four tiebreakers are:
1. Combined head-to-head win-percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents. (That’s not applicable because none of the three teams play each other.)
2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams. (That’s not applicable because none of the three teams play each other.)
3. Win-percentage versus all common opponents. (That’s not applicable because all would be unbeaten in conference in this scenario.)
4. Win-percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win-percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish. (That’s not applicable because all would be unbeaten in the ACC in this scenario).
In the unlikely event that tiebreaker No. 5 doesn’t settle the matter, here are tiebreakers No. 6 and No .7:
6. The tied team with the highest ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games. (Those standings are not released for public consumption until after the season, and only if necessary to break a tie.)
7. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the Commissioner or Commissioner’s designee.
The ACC tiebreakers were approved by each of the member schools, not the league office.
The College Football Playoff rankings have no bearing on breaking ACC ties.
Even in the unlikely event of UM finishing unbeaten and not making the ACC title game, the Canes (at 12-0 in this scenario) very likely would earn an invitation to the 12-team college playoff but would not get a first-round bye.
If Miami wins its final four games and makes the ACC title game and wins, it would get a top four seed and first round bye.
If Miami wins its final four games and makes the ACC title game and loses that game, it likely would get a playoff berth but wouldn’t get a first-round bye.
This story was originally published October 28, 2024 at 9:52 AM.
