The preseason ACC poll isn’t high on Miami, but the computers are optimistic
Every year since Jim Larranaga took over as the Miami Hurricanes’ coach in 2011, Miami has exceeded expectations. Wherever the Hurricanes have landed in the Atlantic Coast Conference preseason media poll, Larranaga and Co. have lifted Miami at least one spot higher by the end of the season.
The bar isn’t very high this season. At ACC media day Wednesday, members of the media in attendance collectively picked Miami to finish 10th in the conference this upcoming season, which would match the 2013-14 season for the Hurricanes’ worst under Larranaga.
Nationally, however, expectations are a bit different for Miami, which is coming off three straight trips to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history. The Hurricanes are receiving votes in both of the major polls, hovering around the top 30 in most computer rankings and sitting comfortably inside the top 25 in some individual prognostications.
No major college basketball ranking system is more optimistic about Miami than the Pomeroy College Basketball Rankings, located at kenpom.com. The algorithm created by Ken Pomeroy has become one of the most popular predictive rankings in recent years and the math favors the Hurricanes in the preseason. Miami opens the year as kenpom’s No. 21 team, behind the Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina Tar Heels, Virginia Cavaliers, Syracuse Orange, Clemson Tigers and Florida State Seminoles in the ACC.
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) isn’t too far out of step with kenpom. BPI slots in the Hurricanes as the No. 24 team in the preseason, once again behind Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and Syracuse, plus the Virginia Tech Hokies. Miami, however, ranks ahead of Clemson and Florida State in the BPI rankings.
The human polls are a bit less bullish on the Hurricanes, perhaps considering the departures of star shooting guards Lonnie Walker IV and Bruce Brown to be too much for Miami to overcome despite returning four of its top six scorers. Both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll have the Hurricanes in the “others receiving votes category.” Miami effectively sits at No. 35 in the AP Poll behind the Blue Devils, Tar Heels, Cavaliers, Orange, Seminoles, Tigers and Virginia Tech, all of whom are ranked. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are also receiving more votes than the Hurricanes.
The Coaches Poll has Miami quite a bit lower, effectively sitting in a tie for No. 46 with only two votes. The same seven ACC teams are ranked in both polls and Notre Dame once again sits ahead of the Hurricanes. The coaches, however, also slot the North Carolina State Wolfpack and Louisville Cardinals ahead of Miami. All those schools, except Louisville, also ranked ahead of the Hurricanes in the ACC preseason poll.
It’s not hard to find a stray analyst particularly high on Miami, though. On Monday, ESPN’s John Gasaway put out his annual ranking of every Division I team and the Hurricanes are high on his list. Citing the return of star center Dewan Hernandez, Gasaway ranked Miami as the No. 22 team in the country, behind Duke, North Carolina, Syracuse, Clemson and Florida State in the ACC.
“Hernandez is the player you knew last year as Dewan Huell,” Gasaway wrote. “He made the change in the offseason, but even more important for the Hurricanes is that the 6-11 junior, under any name he wants, is on the floor in Coral Gables and not playing professionally somewhere else. His rate of improvement over the last two season has been rapid.”