Sports

With Rays ‘back on track,' 10 numbers that define where they are

By Marc Topkin, Tampa Bay Times The Tribune Content Agency

Updated June 11, 2026 7:49 PM

Given what the Rays did in sweeping the Red Sox and, more importantly, how they did so - returning to the creative and diverse offense, dominant pitching and tidy defense that worked so well previously - it seems safe, after a few wobbly weeks, to start looking ahead again.

"To get back on track was huge," starter Drew Rasmussen said after Wednesday's win. "Now we need to continue on the West Coast."

The Rays will be working the late shift, playing three games starting Friday at Angel Stadium (where they are 23-9 over the last 10 years), then three beginning Monday at Dodger Stadium (3-7 in four previous visits).

The trip seems a little less worrisome after the three wins against Boston, as the Rays had lost 10 of their previous 13 games and all but percentage points of what had been a 5 ½-game lead in the American League East.

Because the season is so long, every team, even in an overall good season, is going to have a bad stretch. Or several.

Lou Piniella's 2001 Mariners, who tied the modern-era record with 116 wins, had a 4-7 skid and a separate four-game losing streak. The 1998 Yankees, whose 114 wins included 11 in 12 games vs. the expansion Devil Rays, started 1-4 and had runs of 3-5, 2-5 and 4-7.

The challenge for the Rays is to understand and accept they had the bad stretch and then move on to better days.

"You've got to prepare for them," veteran starter Nick Martinez said before the sweep of the Red Sox. "That's what you (reporters) are here for, right? To remind us when we're playing well and when we're not playing well.

"So, yeah, obviously, we're aware of it. We've just got to come to the ballpark with a little bit of spark, little bit of energy, and take care of the little things. I think that's the best way out of these ruts."

The reality for the Rays is that they aren't as good as the team that went 22-4 from April 22 to May 22 and not as bad as the team that - after the May 23 rainout in New York - went 3-10 from May 24-June 7.

Here (going into Thursday's games) are 10 telling numbers:

89.5

Percent chance to the make the AL playoffs, per FanGraphs. That's down from a high of 92.8% on May 22 but up from 80.7% after Saturday's loss in Miami. The FanGraphs computers don't give the Rays much chance of holding on to the AL East lead, with just a 24.6% shot compared to 72.2% for the Yankees. Baseball-reference's projections are a little more optimistic regarding the Rays overall, with a 93.1% chance to make the playoffs, though only 10.6% to win the division.

89

Rays' magic number, going into play Thursday, to clinch a playoff berth - the needed combination of wins by Tampa Bay over its remaining 97 games and losses by Texas, which currently holds the third AL wild-card spot.

40-45

Walks to strikeouts for Junior Caminero, a marked improvement from his 2025 first full season, when he took 41 free passes and fanned 125 times. The willingness to take walks is good for him and for the team, given his .378 on-base percentage.

28-8, .778

Rays' record when scoring first, third best in majors and in stark contrast to when they don't, with a 12-17 record. And when the Rays get the lead, they usually hold it, going 31-2 when ahead after six innings, 31-1 after seven and 33-0 after eight. "For us, whenever we score early is really important," said second baseman Richie Palacios.

24-9, .727

Rays' majors-best home record, with a chance to grow their advantage. After this road trip, they play 17 of their next 23 games in the friendly confines of Tropicana Field. Since they started being competitive in 2008, the Rays have always been good at the Trop, with a 795-560 (.587) record. "I think the roof actually does make a little bit of a difference," starter Drew Rasmussen said, noting most other domed stadiums have dark roofs. "You come in here, and it's a little bit lighter. I just don't think it's something that opposing defenders are quite used to the first couple of days, and then you blink and the series is over. I do think our guys have a little bit of an advantage when you talk about that. But other than that, I don't really think there's anything different about our stadium as opposed to others."

23

Runs batted in by Ryan Vilade, fourth most on the team. When Vilade was acquired from the Reds in a cash deal as the first move of the offseason, no one expected him to have this kind of impact. Over parts of four seasons with the Rockies, Tigers, Cardinals and Reds, he played in only 28 games, going 9-for-64 (.141) with one homer and five RBIs. His ability to work quality at-bats, play several positions well, run the bases aggressively and fit well in the clubhouse have made Vilade - nicknamed "Big Rig," same as former Lightning standout Pat Maroon - a key part of the Rays' success. Also contributing more than expected is reliever Bryan Baker, who is tied for second in the majors with 18 saves (in 21 chances) and has a 1.98 ERA.

15-4, .789

Rays' majors-best record in games against left-handed starters, including 9-1 at the Trop. That's a significant improvement from last season, when they were 20-27 (and played home games at Tampa's Steinbrenner Field) and 19-18 in 2024. Key performers include the obvious, with top right-handed hitters Yandy Diaz posting a .338 average and .969 OPS and Caminero .286 and .930, but also pre-injury Jonny DeLuca (.260, .815) and newcomers Vilade (.322, .848) and Ben Williamson (.267, .685). They expect help from new outfielder Austin Slater, given his career .262 average and .770 OPS. A bonus has been contributions from lefty swingers Jonathan Aranda (.262, .698) and Richie Palacios (.286, .729). "It is a little different than the past seasons, where lefties have kind of quieted us," manager Kevin Cash said. "Feel like we've had, we're giving ourselves a better chance this year."

12-0

The Rays don't play another AL East team until the Yankees visit July 6, which is too bad. The Rays have taken advantage of surprisingly slow starts by the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox to post an impressive 17-6 record against their division foes, including a remarkable, and historic, 12-0 at home, sweeping a series against each. Since MLB started divisional play in 1969, only two teams started the season with longer intradivisional home winning streaks, the 1998 Padres (14) and 2003 Royals (13). The 1981 Expos and 2009 Dodgers also started 12-0. "What you're trying to do is create space and separation, so when you win in the division, obviously you gain one full game on one of the other four teams you're competing with," Rasmussen said. "So yeah, it's huge to play well in your division."

Plus-12

Differential between runs Rays have scored (297) and allowed (285), despite having the fourth-best record at 40-25 (.615). Of the 13 teams with winning records, seven had better differentials: Dodgers (+141), Braves (+114), Brewers (+103), Yankees (+103), Mariners (+28), Pirates (+22) and Rangers (+14). Based on their differential, the Rays, under the Pythagorean winning percentage developed by Bill James, should have a record of 34-31.

10-3, .769

Rays' majors-best record in one-run games. They also are 5-4 in extra-inning games and 9-6 in games decided in the last at-bat. "To win close games, you've got to do a lot of things well," Cash said. "We do work hard on preventing runs, and in those tight ballgames one run can be the difference-maker. … Every good team wants to be really good in tight games."

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