How ‘Historic' El Niño Could Impact World Cup Matches
A potentially "historic" El Niño event could reshape weather patterns just as the 2026 FIFA World Cup gets underway across North America, raising concerns about everything from extreme heat to disruptive storms at matches played throughout the summer.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed Thursday that El Niño conditions have officially formed in the tropical Pacific, declaring the onset of the warming climate pattern after months of anticipation. NOAA said persistent above-average ocean temperatures and atmospheric changes met the threshold for an official El Niño event, and forecasters warned it could intensify into one of the strongest episodes on record later this year. The announcement was made the same day as the first game of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The tournament began Thursday and runs through July 19, spanning nearly six weeks and 104 matches across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
“NOAA has officially declared the start of El Niño today. After months of anticipation, the criteria has been met with East Pacific Ocean Temps rising at a record pace,” WFLA-TV chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli posted on X. “The models have been consistently advertising a "historic" event, very possibly the strongest on record by fall.”
What Is El Niño?
El Niño, the warm phase of a recurring climate cycle, can disrupt global weather patterns, raising the likelihood of extreme heat, storms, droughts and flooding in different regions.
With the World Cup taking place during peak Northern Hemisphere summer, shifting weather patterns could affect match conditions at nearly a dozen open-air or non-climate-controlled venues.
What Does Super El Niño Mean?
A "super El Niño" refers to an exceptionally strong El Niño event, when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise to about 2 degrees Celsius or more above average.
While scientists and agencies like NOAA typically use the term "very strong El Niño" for this level, "super El Niño" is often used informally to describe these rare and powerful events. When El Niño reaches this intensity, it signals a much larger buildup of heat in the Pacific, which can more strongly disrupt global weather patterns and increase the likelihood of extreme conditions such as heatwaves, flooding in some regions, and drought in others.
“This event is widely advertised by models to be potentially the strongest on record,” Berardelli said on X. “El Niño takes very hot water stored in the deep tropical west Pacific, pushing it east and up to the surface, lofting that heat into the atmosphere, which supercharges weather events and throws the climate off-kilter. This typical means more intense heatwaves & floods, but also it restrains the Atlantic hurricane season. So its impacts are both good and bad.”
FIFA World Cup: Which Places Are Hosting Matches?
United States
- Atlanta
- Boston (Foxborough)
- Dallas
- Houston
- Kansas City
- Los Angeles
- Miami
- New York/New Jersey (East Rutherford)
- Philadelphia
- San Francisco Bay Area (Santa Clara)
- Seattle
Canada
- Toronto
- Vancouver
Mexico
- Mexico City
- Guadalajara
- Monterrey
Mexico will face off against South Africa in the first game of the World Cup, set for 3 p.m. ET on June 11 at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
Estadio Azteca, like many of the host-city stadiums participating in this year’s World Cup, has no full roof, making it vulnerable to extreme heat and thunderstorms.
Map Shows Stadiums Vulnerable to Weather Threats as El Niño Begins
Many of the 16 World Cup host cities feature stadiums that are partially or fully exposed to the elements, increasing vulnerability to heat, humidity, heavy rain, and lightning delays.
There are only four climate-controlled stadiums hosting World Cup teams for this year’s tournament. They are AT&T Stadium in Dallas, NRG Stadium in Houston, Mercedes‑Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
The other U.S. stadiums, which are either not climate-controlled or open to the elements, include:
- MetLife Stadium in New York/New Jersey
- Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia
- Gillette Stadium in Boston
- Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City
- Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara
- Lumen Field in Seattle
- Hard Rock Stadium in Miami
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The stadiums in Canada and Mexico are either open-air or not fully climate-controlled. They are:
- Estadio Azteca in Mexico City
- Estadio Akron in Guadalajara
- Estadio BBVA in Monterrey
- BMO Field in Toronto
- BC Place in Vancouver
Open-air venues in U.S. locations like New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, Kansas City and Miami offer little protection from mid-summer conditions, where temperatures and humidity can create physically demanding environments for players and fans alike.
Weather risks are not limited to heat. Forecasters have warned that summer thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are also possible during the tournament window. For example, opening matches could face rain and storm threats, reflecting broader variability in conditions across host regions.
While several stadiums have retractable roofs or climate controls, many do not-meaning real-time weather could directly affect match tempo, player safety, and fan experience.
How El Niño Can Influence U.S. Summer Weather
El Niño's influence on U.S. summer weather is more limited than during winter, but it can still shape certain conditions, especially when it strengthens later in the season.
El Niño alters global patterns by shifting ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation, which can cascade into changes in rainfall, storm tracks and temperature extremes. However, historical data suggest El Niño does not have a strong or consistent signal on U.S. summer temperatures overall, meaning its effects can vary by region and may be less predictable during June and July.
One clearer influence is on tropical systems: El Niño can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, potentially reducing the number or intensity of storms later in the summer. This could positively impact games in Mexico and Miami, as tropical systems are less likely to disrupt those events.
Even so, forecasters stress that each El Niño event behaves differently, and local weather conditions-such as heat waves or thunderstorms-can still pose risks regardless of the broader climate pattern.
Will World Cup Games Be Canceled Due to Severe Weather?
At this stage, there is no indication that World Cup matches will be canceled due to El Niño or related weather risks.
FIFA and tournament organizers have contingency protocols in place to manage extreme conditions, including lightning delays, hydration measures during extreme heat, and safety guidance for fans and players.
Matches are typically suspended rather than canceled when severe weather-such as lightning in the area-is detected, with play resuming once conditions improve.
FIFA and tournament organizers have measures in place to manage extreme conditions, including pauses for lightning and heat mitigation efforts such as hydration stations and cooling areas for fans. Still, the combination of a large-scale summer tournament and a strengthening El Niño raises the prospect of more frequent weather-related disruptions, from kickoff delays to challenging playing environments.
As one of the largest sporting events ever staged, the 2026 World Cup is set to unfold alongside a powerful and evolving climate signal, making weather an unpredictable but potentially defining factor in matches across North America.
2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
This story was originally published June 11, 2026 at 12:30 PM.