Is There Any Chance Fernando Mendoza Doesn't Go No. 1 in the NFL Draft?

We are only a few days away from the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh, and Fernando Mendoza is highly expected to go as the No. 1 pick in the draft to the Las Vegas Raiders.

But is there a chance the Heisman Award winner isn’t the first selected?

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The Indiana Hoosiers quarterback led his program to a national title and has been the undoubted first selection even before that big win, yet, as always with sports, is anything a true guarantee?

At the start of his season in Indiana, per Kalshi, the prediction website, Mendoza had a 5% chance of going first overall.

After his hot start with the Hoosiers and climbing up the ranks, his odds skyrocketed to over 30% in October.

In November, his odds rose to as high as 42%, competing with the likes of Dante Moore, Rueben Bain Jr., and other talented players for the possible first selection.

By the time the College Football Playoff began, Mendoza was far and away the leader to go No. 1 overall, with the QB-needy Raiders securing the top spot in the 2026 NFL Draft. Before the national title game against the Miami Hurricanes, Mendoza was around 90% on Kalshi.

Now, a few nights away from Thursday and the 2026 NFL Draft, Mendoza reached a new high on Kalshi on Monday: 99%.

Mendoza is, for all intents and purposes, already wearing the silver and black of the Raiders, as he’s been rumored to have been installing the team’s offense over the past month with his quarterback coaches.

While it won’t be official until Thursday, the New York Jets appear to be already on the clock with the No. 2 selection.

Good luck, New York.

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This story was originally published April 20, 2026 at 8:22 PM.