Sports

2026 NFL Draft: First-Round Mock Based on Prediction Markets

By Craig Ellenport Athlon Sports

Updated April 15, 2026 7:14 AM

There will always be surprises on draft day, and the 2026 NFL Draft will be no exception. That said, glaring needs and can't-miss prospects make some picks more obvious than others. You'd be hard-pressed to find a mock draft out there that doesn't have Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza going No. 1 to the Las Vegas Raiders - but that's by no means the only common thread.

Of course, you can bet on who's going where. As we're well aware, the sportsbooks know what they're doing when it comes to making the odds. For this exercise, we're going to take it a step further. The use of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket has been growing exponentially, and we've quickly discovered that prediction markets might be even more accurate than the sportsbooks.

So, with a week to go before the draft, here's a mock draft based on the heaviest trading in the prediction markets.

1. Las Vegas Raiders - Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

With over $1 million in volume trading at both Kalshi and Polymarket, the Heisman Trophy winner is the overwhelming pick to go first overall. What's interesting is that each site has a different long-shot pick. Kalshi has Mendoza at 99%, with LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier coming in at 1%. Polymarket has Mendoza at 98% and Utah OT Spencer Fano second at just under 1%.

Texas Tech Red Raiders linebacker David Bailey (31) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images Mark J&period; Rebilas-Imagn Images

2. New York Jets - David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

As early as April 3, Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese held more than 70% of the market share at both Kalshi and Polymarket. In the past week, Bailey has overtaken Reese at both sites. Reese remains the second choice for both.

3. Arizona Cardinals - Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State

At Kalshi, the market for third overall pick is essentially a reverse of the second overall pick, with Reese edging out Bailey. At Polymarket, however, there is an interesting curveball: Reese gets the nod, but the second choice, at 26%, is Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa. Based on a majority of mocks, Mauigoa isn't a lock to be the first OT drafted, so this is appearance is telling.

4. Tennessee Titans - Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

Pairing Love with second-year QB Cam Ward seems like a solid offensive foundation for the Titans - so we'll stick with Kalshi, which has Love as the leading contender to go fourth overall at 46%. At Polymarket, Love isn't even among the top four players being traded. The top two prospects listed there are Alabama OT Kadyn Proctor and Clemson CB Avieon Terrell.

5. New York Giants - Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

Styles leads the way on Kalshi with 49% of the trading for this pick. His Buckeyes teammate, safety Caleb Downs, is next at 15%. Once again, Polymarket is completely different, with Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman leading the way with 50% of the action.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Carnell Tate catches a touchdown pass during his team's game against the Penn State Nittany Lions in Columbus, Ohio, on Nov. 1, 2025. Adam Cairns / Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Adam Cairns / Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

6. Cleveland Browns - Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

Whether it's Shedeur Sanders or someone else playing quarterback for Todd Monken's offense, they clearly need help in the receiver room. Kalshi has Tate leading the way with this pick at 26%.

7. Washington Commanders - Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

The only two players Kalshi has listed here are Love and Styles, both of whom are off the board. Polymarket has a few names listed, with Downs holding a slight edge.

8. New Orleans Saints - Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

Delane leads the way with 26% of the trading for this pick on Kalshi. Not far off the pace is Miami edge Rueben Bain Jr. at 20%.

9. Kansas City Chiefs - Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

With the Chiefs needing to replace both of their starting cornerbacks, they will be very unhappy if the Saints do end up taking Delane one spot ahead of them. Delane is the top pick here on Kalshi at 23%, with Tyson up next at 16%. Given the Chiefs' recent sketchy history with receivers, it seems odd they would draft a receiver with injury history this high. We'll see.

10. Cincinnati Bengals - Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

The top two players being traded here, Downs and Delane, are already gone. As the next corner off the board, it might make more sense that the Chiefs grab him at No. 9. But for this exercise we're following the prediction markets, and Kalshi says McCoy is available at 10.

11. Miami Dolphins - Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket have any markets for specific picks outside the top 10, but there are some other markets that can help us fill out the mock. Polymarket has one for "team to draft Rueben Bain Jr." The Dolphins and Commanders lead the way at 48% each; since we already had Washington go a different direction with the No. 7 pick, Bain staying in South Florida works.

Auburn defensive end Keldric Faulk. Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

12. Dallas Cowboys - Keldric Faulk, Edge, Auburn

The Cowboys can certainly use another pass rusher, and there is a market on Kalshi for "3rd Edge drafted" this year. The top two names, Bailey and Bain, are already taken. Faulk is next up.

13. Los Angeles Rams (from ATL) - Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

The retirement of Rob Havenstein has the Rams on the market for an offensive tackle. Fano, as previously mentioned, actually got a little love for the first overall pick. While that won't happen, Fano would be a pretty good value at 13.

14. Baltimore Ravens - Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

In his latest mock here at Athlon Sports, draft expert Luke Easterling has the Ravens going offensive line with this pick. Polymarket did have action on Mauigoa as high as third overall, so we'll give him to Baltimore here.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Miami

The Bucs can use a pass rusher, so let's go with Kalshi's market for "4th Edge drafted." Mesidor leads the way at 41% of the action.

16. New York Jets (from IND) - Makai Lemon, WR, USC

Kalshi has a market for "3rd wide receiver drafted," and Lemon leads the way at 31%. And it helps here that Jets head coach Aaron Glenn, when he was the Detroit Lions defensive coordinator, had plenty of respect for another USC wide receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown.

17. Detroit Lions - Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

As much as Detroit needs defensive help, the offensive line needs a rebuild as well. In Kalshi's "3rd offensive lineman drafted" market, Freeling comes in at 22%, ahead of Penn State's Olaivavega Ioane.

18. Minnesota Vikings - Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

Replacing veteran safety Harrison Smith is a priority. Thieneman and Toledo's Emmanuel McNeil-Warren both have first-round grades; Thieneman had appeared in some prediction markets at higher spots, so we'll put him in first.

19. Carolina Panthers - Olaivavega Ioane, OL, Penn State

The Panthers can go in a few directions here. Offensive line is one of them, and Ioane is the next lineman up on the markets.

20. Dallas Cowboys (from GB) - Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson

After landing a pass rusher with their first first-round pick, the Cowboys double down on defense. As we mentioned, Terrell actually had some action for the No. 4 overall pick, so he's certainly worth a shot here.

Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver KC Concepcion (7) runs for a touchdown during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images] Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

21. Pittsburgh Steelers - KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M

Pittsburgh's need for a dependable wide receiver is glaring, to put it mildly. Under Kalshi's market for the "4th Wide Receiver drafted," the top player not already taken is Concepcion.

22. Los Angeles Chargers - Cashius Howell, Edge, Texas A&M

Kalshi markets have edge being the first position drafted by the Chargers (with offensive lineman being a somewhat distant second). Under Kalshi's trading for the 3rd edge drafted, the highest-ranked player still on the board is Howell.

23. Philadelphia Eagles - Caleb Lomu, OL, Utah

Kalshi markets have the Eagles with a 40% chance of taking an offensive lineman with their first pick. Receiver is second at 20% - that would change if they trade A.J. Brown, but salary cap dynamics make it unlikely Brown would be traded before June 1. Lomu's name is among those beong traded as the third o-lineman drafted, so we'll throw him in here as the fifth.

24. Cleveland Browns (from JAX) - Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

Kalshi markets have receiver as the first position Cleveland will draft, followed by offensive line. Given that there are still some good receivers available at this spot, however, the Browns might want to think about taking a lineman with that No. 6 overall pick and get the receiver here. But for this exercise, Tate was the pick at No. 6. Proctor is the next lineman available from the candidates for third linemen drafted.

25. Chicago Bears - Malachi Lawrence, Edge, UCF

Defensive line/edge is the favorite to be the first position drafted by Chicago, and Lawrence is the most traded name left among the choices for fourth overall edge.

Oct 25, 2025; Pullman, Washington, USA; Washington State Cougars quarterback Zevi Eckhaus (4) is tackled by Toledo Rockets safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (7) in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images

26. Buffalo Bills - Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo

Kalshi has defensive line/edge as the first position Buffalo drafts, but there have been too many good edge rushers to come off the board here. Next on the market is defensive back, so the Bills take a do-it-all safety whose name has poppoed up in a few markets.

27. San Francisco 49ers - Blake Miller, OT, Clemson

The 49ers need to look at rebuilding their o-line, which is why trading at Kalshi has that as the first position they draft. Miller is the next name up.

28. Houston Texans - Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech

Kalshi has offensive line as the Texans' first position to draft, but there have been too many o-linemen taken so far. Linebacker is second for Houston. Georgia's CJ Allen is the most traded name on Kalshi's market for the "2nd Linebacker drafted" - but Rodriguez has been climbing fast over the last few days, and it looks as if he can overtake Allen for this spot.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (from LAR) - Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

Cornerback is Kalshi's pick for first position drafted by Kansas City, and since we had them taking a receiver with their earlier pick, this one needs to be a corner. Hood is the next man up.

30. Miami Dolphins (from DEN) - Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

Bear with me for a sec… Kalshi has offensive line for Miami's top priority, but too many taken already. Kalshi also has a non-draft market asking for predictions on where free-agent tight end David Njoku will land; the Ravens and Dolphins are the two favorites. So if the Fins are considering Njoku, why not use your second first-round pick on the best available tight end in the draft?

31. New England Patriots - Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

Are the Patriuots trading for A.J. Brown? Can't make that assumption, and receiver is the position of need. Cooper is the next name after Concepcion in the "4th Wide Receiver drafted" market.

32. Seattle Seahawks - Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame

The defending Super Bowl champs can certainly afford to go best available athlete here. They might also entertain any trade offers if there's a team looking to sneak back into the end of Round 1 to draft Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson. Price might not carry a first-round grade, but he is Kalshi's second running back off the board, and this is a position of need for Seattle. They can afford to reach if they want.

This story was originally published April 15, 2026 at 7:00 AM.