49ers or Chiefs? Who will be MVP? Our writers and editors make their Super Bowl picks
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You could say we’re committed to the 49ers.
We’ve been at every San Francisco 49ers game, every open practice and every media session. A few weeks ago, we hung out with Richard Sherman while he and his wife donated Christmas presents.
Naturally, we have thoughts about who’s going to win the Super Bowl between the 49ers and Chiefs. And there had to be a contrarian in the bunch.
Chris Biderman: 49ers 34, Chiefs 31
Why the 49ers will win: The best pass defense against the best quarterback. What could be better than that for a Super Bowl? This is an intriguing matchup because it will be the toughest opponent both teams have faced this year — and the 49ers have had a few barn-burners during the regular season. I believe they’ve been battle-tested for this moment. The shootout in New Orleans proved the 49ers could win a high-scoring affair. October’s rain-soaked game in Washington, a 9-0 win, proves they can win when it’s sloppy. All three of their losses came by 13 points combined (which includes a meaningless touchdown scored by the Falcons as time expired in Week 15).
The discussion surrounding Jimmy Garoppolo is mostly silly. Despite throwing just eight passes in the conference championship, Garoppolo has been a very effective passer. He’s the only quarterback in the league to finish in the top five in completion rate, touchdown passes and yards per attempt. The 49ers have not had to overcome Garoppolo’s play, despite the defense and running game also being effective.
The Chiefs defense played dramatically better over the final stretch of the season. But who did they go against? They thumped the Raiders, Broncos, Bears and Chargers, none of whom made the playoffs, and beat a flawed Patriots team. Yes, putting up 51 points on the Texans was impressive, particularly after falling behind early, but would be they be able to do that against the 49ers, with that pass rush?
Finally, the Chiefs defense can be had. It struggles against pre-snap motions, which Kyle Shanahan uses at the highest rate in the NFL. Kansas City’s linebackers are mediocre and should be exploitable. If the 49ers can run the ball successfully, control the tempo of the game and give their pass rushers necessary breathers, they should find a way to win. There’s nothing more demoralizing in football than not being able to stop the run, and no one has stopped San Francisco’s multifaceted rushing attack.
MVP: Deebo Samuel. He’s versatile and blazing fast, a perfect counterpunch either for the passing game or as a runner. If the Chiefs decide to test Garoppolo, Samuel figures to get the call.
Joe Davidson: 49ers 30, Chiefs 28
Why the 49ers will win: The run game, meaning old-school football stands tall in the 100th year of the sport. Flawless line execution led by the ageless Joe Staley and a bevy of backs carved up Minnesota and Green Bay in the NFC playoffs, so why reinvent the wheel? Kansas City isn’t great against the run. This isn’t Hank Stram’s defensive juggernaut of 1969 here, folks.
Also this: expect the 49er defensive front of Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and friends to make an impact, as it has all season. And finally, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan learned the hard way that it’s difficult to hold a lead in the Super Bowl from his offensive coordinator days with the Atlanta Falcons, who blew a 28-3, third-quarter lead against the Patriots. Won’t happen again.
MVP: Nick Bosa. The 49ers rookie rush end has devoured all comers all season. His arrival and impact instantly turned a 4-12 team of a year ago into this 15-3 bunch.
Cameron Salerno: 49ers 35, Chiefs 27
Why the 49ers will win: Unlike last year’s Super Bowl that ended with 16 points total between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams, this game should be high-scoring. The 49ers and Chiefs both have playmakers on offense, but the real key for the 49ers is the defense. The 49ers have the top-ranked pass defense in the NFL and have allowed the fewest 20 yard gains or more this season through the air. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is an exceptional talent. The 49ers defense should focus on containing Mahomes because he will still get his 25-plus completions and a few touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo only threw eight passes in the NFC championship against the Green Bay Packers, while the team rushed for 286 yards. The Chiefs likely will commit to stopping the run and force Garoppolo to beat them with his arm. If that’s the case, expect Garoppolo to have a big game, as he did in Week 14 against the New Orleans Saints. It wouldn’t surprise me to see wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who has Super Bowl experience, have a big day.
MVP: Nick Bosa. The last defensive player to win MVP was edge rusher Von Miller in 2016. The award is mostly won by a quarterback, but if any player on defense is going to win the award, it will be Bosa. I predict he finishes with a pair of sacks, including one that forces a fumble.
Noel Harris: 49ers 30, Chiefs 27
Why the 49ers will win: I’m going to throw out a cliché here: Defense wins championships. While I understand that San Francisco has only played two games this postseason, they have the NFL’s best averages in points against (15), rushing yards allowed (41.5) and total yards (252.5) in those contests. If the defense does its job, the 49ers’ run game — which has put up the most yards per game in the playoffs and was second in the regular season — can control the clock against a KC defense which was in the bottom quarter of the league against the run, which helps keep the electric Mahomes and his offense on the sideline. Also, the Chiefs have trailed by double digits in both of their playoff games, but I don’t see Kansas City being able to rally if they fall behind big again.
MVP: Raheem Mostert. Running the ball will be key to a 49ers victory, so why not feed the man who’s reached the end zone in seven of his last eight games, including a record-setting four touchdowns in the NFC championship? San Francisco can also rely on Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida to chew up yardage and time, but Mostert is my pick to lead the way and become the first running back to lift the Pete Rozelle Trophy since Terrell Davis did it for the Denver Broncos in the 1997-98 season.
James Patrick: Chiefs 34, 49ers 31
Why the Chiefs will win: OK, fine. I’ll argue the other side. Do you want me to talk about Patrick Mahomes? Read elsewhere, amigo. The guy’s a wizard, we all get it, and his dad played for my Minnesota Twins. You’re up to speed. Let’s talk about defense. Clearly based on our score predictions, none of us think there’s going to be a lot of defense. It will come down to big plays.
But here’s the thing. The 49ers have a good defense, allowing the eighth-fewest points a game in the NFL this regular season at 19.4. Just in front of them? The Chiefs, who allowed 19.2 points per game. They bend but they don’t often break.
And sure, there’s the offense. They don’t run the ball often, but they are reasonably successful when they do. Tight end Travis Kelce will present a challenge to a 49ers defense that will already be dealing with speedy Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. The thing I’m watching is Richard Sherman trying to cover Hill. Sherman got burned deep by Aaron Rodgers in the NFC championship on a streak to Davante Adams. Sherman is still fast, but Hill is faster. If Mahomes gets enough time to throw, there could be a repeat.
MVP: Patrick Mahomes. He’s the betting favorite for a reason. But like I said, we’re not going to talk about that.
This story was originally published February 1, 2020 at 7:00 AM with the headline "49ers or Chiefs? Who will be MVP? Our writers and editors make their Super Bowl picks."