Anyone can pick an NCAA sleeper team. Here’s the upset ALL the experts agree on
Who’s the best sleeper pick for the NCAA Tournament this year?
For most, filling out an NCAA bracket is a practice in guesswork.
“Of all the teams I have little-to-no familiarity with, which is best poised to (a) upset someone in the first round, and (b) which of them could possibly make the elusive deep tournament run?” is kind of the way it goes.
Then, experts hurl hot takes and cold hard locks from every website and publication, and that narrows it down somewhat.
But in the early-goings of Bracket Season 2019, there are a few names that keep popping up over and over again.
Murray State
Murray State, a 12-seed in the West region, is the team that almost all the experts have on their sleeper list, putting 5-seed Marquette on early upset alert.
“When you’ve got a lottery pick on your team, you can beat anyone,” ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas told the New York Post.
He was talking about guard Ja Morant, who is eighth in the nation in scoring (24.6 ppg) entering the tournament and leads the nation in assists per game (10.0). The 6-foot-3 creative whiz is being compared to NBA guards Russell Westbrook and De’Aaron Fox, according to the Lexington Herald Leader.
The Murray State Racers (27-4) upset Belmont, another popular NCAA tournament sleeper pick, in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament finals. Morant had 36 points, seven rebounds and three assists in the win.
St. Mary’s
St. Mary’s, the 11-seed in the South Region, is also fresh off an upset win, but a much bigger one in the West Coast Conference tournament. The Gaels (22-11) beat West Region 1-seed Gonzaga to earn the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
If their overall record in a mid-major conference looks unassuming, you can justify moving the Gaels along, even for a possible deep tournament run. Because they are peaking at the right time of the year.
Gonzaga (30-3) was the only team to beat St. Mary’s since the start of February, then the Gaels climbed the mountain and beat the Zags in the conference tournament. And the Villanova team St. Mary’s gets in the opening round this year is not the same caliber of Villanova team as last year’s NCAA championship squad.
Utah State
Utah State is being mentioned as a sleeper team in the NCAAs not only because of its surprise win in the Mountain West Tournament, but also because of their neurtral-site win over another team on this list.
That’s right, these Aggies thumped St. Mary’s, 80-63, way back in November. Utah State is an 8-seed in this year’s Midwest Region.
“Even in losses to Houston and Arizona State, they kept things close and were by no means outmatched,” Bleacher Report reported. Houston is a 3-seed, and Arizona State is an 11-seed that plays in the Pac-12 — a more competitive league in the tournament — so Utah State has showed it can play with the big boys.
Junior guard Sam Merrill (21.2 ppg) is a big reason why, and so is center Neemias Queta, who has averaged 24.9 points in the team’s last 11 games. If Utah State beats Washington in the first round, they would likely draw North Carolina in the second round.
“As long as the Aggies get past Washington in the first round, Utah State would likely put up a good fight against the Tar Heels,” the Sporting News reported. “UNC was knocked out of the tournament in the second round last season, and Utah State could pose a threat with their size and scoring to create a really intriguing matchup.
UC Irvine
UC Irvine is 30-5 this year, making quick work of the rest of the Big West Conference. And all the Anteaters got for it was a 13-seed in the South Region and a date against 4-seed Kansas State.
If tourney results were based on awesome mascots, Irvine would be a perennial blue-blood program. But where they stand in this year’s field may prove to be fertile ground for a first-round upset, based on the injury status of one key Kansas State Wildcat.
Two-time All-Big 12 first-team forward Dean Wade sat out the Big 12 Tournament with a foot injury, according to the Manhattan Mercury-News. K-State is 20-5 in games Wade has been able to suit up in this year, and will know more Monday about Wade’s status for the opening-round game on Friday.
“The Anteaters are a terrible draw for Kansas State, and their upset odds are two times better than you would expect for a typical No. 13 seed,” the Washington Post reported.
This story was originally published March 18, 2019 at 9:14 AM with the headline "Anyone can pick an NCAA sleeper team. Here’s the upset ALL the experts agree on."