Democrats feel emboldened in Florida. They shouldn’t — here’s why | Opinion

An unsurprising Democratic victory in the Democratic-majority city of Miami during an off-cycle election is being used to argue that Democrats are poised to flip Republican seats and turn Florida leftward. Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried even claimed that “the pendulum is swinging in our favor.”

It isn’t. And there are clear, measurable reasons why.

Start with the most basic ingredient of winning campaigns: voter registration. Republicans in Florida continue to expand our registration advantage over Democrats by 1.4 million voters. Every county in the state has trended more Republican, and several large counties that were once reliably Democratic — including the largest, Miami-Dade — are now red. That margin continues to grow.

The reason is simple: Democrats are increasingly on the wrong side of the issues that matter most to Floridians.

Republicans don’t just offer different ideas — we offer better ones, with results to prove it. That is especially true when it comes to state government spending.

Florida’s budget totals $117.4 billion for 23.3 million residents — about $5,038 per person. New York, a similarly sized state governed by Democrats, spends $254 billion for roughly 20 million people, or about $12,700 per person. That means Democratic governance costs residents nearly $7,800 more per person — without delivering better services.

Housing affordability is another challenge, in part because Florida’s success has made it an attractive place to live, work and raise a family. No state income tax, low crime, a strong business climate and reliable public services drive demand — and demand requires supply.

Republican policies that reduce excessive regulation have allowed more housing and rental units to be built, helping markets move toward equilibrium. At the same time, Republican reforms are beginning to stabilize Florida’s property insurance market.

Immigration policy has also played a role. Pew Research estimates Florida’s illegal alien population grew from roughly 700,000 to 1.6 million by 2023, increasing demand for housing and driving up costs. Democrats supported open-border policies. Republicans prioritized enforcement, removing more than 20,000 illegal aliens by October. That effort is already easing pressure on the housing market.

Over the past year, Florida housing prices declined by an average of 5.3%, according to Zillow’s Home Value Index. Rental prices fell by about 2% statewide, with sharper declines in major metro areas — including a 6.2% drop in Miami and 4-5% declines in Tampa and Orlando.

Democrats’ answer to housing affordability is more government intervention: rent controls, subsidies, and additional regulations — policies that historically increase costs and suppress supply.

Republicans support economic freedom — from no state income tax to serious discussions about cutting, and potentially eliminating property taxes on primary residences. Democrats may say otherwise, but they have never met a tax they didn’t like.

Republican policies have also fueled job growth at roughly double the national rate. Republicans support parental rights in education and believe families should decide what their children are taught in public schools. Democrats continue to push ideological agendas on gender and sexuality that most Florida parents reject. Republicans put families first — not unions or bureaucracies.

Republican leadership has made Florida the nation’s top state for education choice and opportunity. Democrats would reverse that progress.

Democrats also cling to divisive concepts like critical race theory, which sort Americans into hierarchies based on race. Floridians reject that worldview and embrace Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s vision of a color-blind society.

On public safety, Republicans back law enforcement and the rule of law. Florida’s violent crime rate is now below the national average while Democrats pioneered policies that created revolving doors for repeat offenders.

Put simply, Democratic policies are costly and unpopular to win many elections in Florida.

Democrats may talk about momentum, but talk doesn’t change math — and the math in Florida is unmistakable. Republican registration is growing. Republican policies are working. Florida didn’t turn red by accident, and it won’t turn blue by wishful thinking.

Evan Power is chairman of the Republican Party of Florida.