For a genuine democratic transition in Venezuela, the US will have to help | Opinion
Nicolás Maduro looked dejected. I confess to have felt a certain satisfaction watching the scene and imagining his fears, now forced to respond for his crimes: extrajudicial executions, arbitrary detentions, abuse, rape and sexual torture; imprisonment for political reasons and the use of enforced disappearance as a method of repression, as documented by the International Criminal Court.
He is a despot but also a criminal. In March 2020, the U.S. Department of Justice filed charges and offered rewards for information leading to his capture and that of other members of his government. The indictment accused him of “narco-terrorism,” detailing the alliance between the dictatorship and the Cartel of the Suns. In August 2025, the State Department increased the reward, and the Treasury Department designated the Cartel of the Suns a “global terrorist organization.”
Several debates have accompanied this operation since it began last August with the naval deployment. With the incursion into Venezuela and Maduro’s capture, questions of legality — both international and domestic — have returned to the center of discussion. The Trump administration has been accused of violating international law by infringing on Venezuela’s sovereignty and on the immunity of a foreign head of state.
This argument is weak, however. Similar actions have occurred repeatedly, from Kosovo to the two Gulf Wars as well as in the operation that killed Osama bin Laden. Bill Clinton famously regretted not having intervened in Rwanda.
In the Americas, the United States intervened in Panama in December 1989, capturing dictator-drug trafficker Manuel Noriega. President-elect Guillermo Endara, who had been prevented from taking office, was sworn in on Dec. 20. Few today remember former President George H. W. Bush’s violation of Panamanian sovereignty. Panama went on to become a stable state with a robust democracy and a prosperous economy. If this is how the Venezuelan story ends, the “illegal” intervention will amount to little more than a historical footnote.
Regarding intervention without congressional authorization — arguably a constitutional violation — Trump and Rubio argued that congressional involvement would have undermined the element of surprise. “Congress tends to leak,” Trump said. There is some truth to this. A state secret shared among 100 senators and 435 representatives ceases to be a secret. Moreover, U.S. courts tend to uphold the president’s authority as commander in chief, itself a constitutional principle.
That said, the central debate concerns “regime change.” Inevitably, removing Maduro requires one. While the military operation was executed with precision, the political strategy appears somewhat ambiguous and ultimately self-defeating.
“We will be in charge,” Trump declared. That hardly seems to be the case, judging by Delcy Rodríguez’s press conference, with the regime’s entire criminal leadership seated around the table. Appointed “interim president” by the Supreme Court of Justice — that is, by the PSUV (the ruling socialist political party) in judicial robes — the scene reflected a change within the regime designed to avoid a change of regime.
How, then, is Rodríguez supposed to control Diosdado Cabello, the regime’s security minister, meaning chief torturer? Cabello also appears in the March 2020 indictment; authorities should also go after him. Leaving the regime intact, even minus Maduro, will derail any democratic transition. For it will not bring rule of law, social peace and stability — prerequisites even for sustainable oil deals, should that be the Trump administration’s sole interest. The same criminal organization is still in power.
It is mind-boggling that the Trump administration would pursue regime change while sidelining Edmundo González and María Corina Machado — the two leaders with clear political legitimacy and a proven capacity to represent the Venezuelan people and govern from day one.
Venezuela is not Iraq, Libya, or Afghanistan. As with Endara in 1989, the United States must help implement a genuine democratic transition. Only under such conditions can the release of all political prisoners — the regime’s hostages — be guaranteed. Anything less would once again fail the Venezuelan people.
Hector Schamis is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, former senior advisor to OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro, columnist in ABC (Madrid) and several international media outlets, and a weekly analyst/commentator for international news channel NTN24.