Extreme stances on abortion can hurt Republicans. Just ask Gov. DeSantis | Opinion

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was the darling of the post-midterm news cycle. He swept Florida’s gubernatorial election as, elsewhere, candidates backed by former President Trump floundered in key races.

But nothing stays golden forever.

As DeSantis weighs a presidential run in 2024, recent Reuters/Ipsos polling finds that Trump has widened his advantage over DeSantis among Republicans. And one group in particular seems to be turning away from the governor: Republican women.

Given the 11th-hour six-week abortion ban DeSantis signed recently and his current weakness among GOP women, it’s worth asking whether abortion is the base-play pundits think it is for Republicans. Our polling shows it isn’t.

The public’s attitudes toward abortion are complicated and nuanced, and that’s especially true with Republican women. It’s a misunderstanding that has important electoral consequences.

Republicans have been losing on abortion in general elections — that’s the conventional wisdom from the post-2022 midterm narrative. Yet, the actions of Republican politicians and Republican-appointed judges would have us believe that going to the extremes on abortion is a must for primaries and a way to drum up support from the base. The numbers, however, don’t back this common political move.

Take, for example, the most recent federal case overruling FDA approval of mifepristone, a commonly used medication for abortion that’s been approved by the FDA for more than 20 years. The decision is unpopular, even more unpopular than the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision. It’s even unpopular among Republican women; majorities of Republican women oppose state-level efforts to restrict access to the pills needed for medication abortion. In fact, many support the ability to access these pills from their doctor.

Other common talking points, like advocating for a six-week national abortion ban, wins no favors from the base, either. Republican men and women are divided on this proposal. Despite recent legislative pushes, there isn’t majority support for it among Republicans. When asked about a national abortion ban without any exceptions for rape, incest, birth defects or the life of the mother, opposition grows more pronounced; 72% of Americans, including a similar number of Republican women, oppose such a ban.

There are certainly abortion issues that do better among Republicans. A national 15-week abortion ban wins majority support from all Republicans. But, the early cutoffs, the outright bans, the rhetoric that leaves no room for shades of gray on the issue are simply not in line with the GOP base or the American public as a whole.

For Republicans, there may be electoral consequences for being out of step with their base, not just in general elections but also potentially in primaries. DeSantis’ polling numbers tell part of that story. In early March, the governor polled equally well with Republican men and women in early primary polling. Now, while his support among Republican men has not moved, his support among Republican women is about half of what it was in March.

That leaves DeSantis lagging behind Trump with Republican women, who by no means forcefully back a six-week abortion ban. DeSantis’ 11 p.m. Friday night bill signing behind closed doors might indicate that even the governor knows this. Abortion is not a winning issue that coalesces the GOP base around a candidate. It fractures the party. Now, it is important to remember that these are early polling numbers, and a lot can happen ahead of the primaries. Things can still change dramatically, but at this juncture, it’s clear that going to the extremes on abortion seems to hurt potential GOP primary contenders more than it helps.

Polling pre-Dobbs and post-Dobbs demonstrates that the public sees this issue in shades of gray, not in absolutes.

As some states push for new abortion bans and restrictions, others fortify abortion rights and cases continue to come before the courts, politicians will have to keep defining their stance on the issue.

Partisan interest groups and misguided conventional wisdom would have people believe that going extreme on abortion is beneficial for Republican candidates and their base. Don’t get carried away with the dogma. Look at the numbers. The public is largely in favor of abortion and opposes extreme measures to limit its access. Forgetting that may hurt at the ballot box.

Mallory Newall is vice president of public affairs at Ipsos. Sarah Feldman is a data journalist at Ipsos.