Joe Biden will win in November. Want to know why? | Opinion
For most of the 2020 election cycle , we have been stunned by Democrats pervasive pessimism about their ability to beat President Trump, despite his consistently low approval ratings. As we deal with the coronavirus pandemic and its effect on all of our lives, it is worth taking a look at the November election to try to make sense out of what we believe will happen — and why.
Neither of us were Joe Biden supporters in the Democratic primaries. We thought he was too old, and our party had newer, better voices to represent us. But Democratic voters, in an unusually organic way, decided to vote strategically and flock to the candidate that they thought had the best chance of defeating Trump.
In fairness to Biden, he is a stable, experienced and accomplished politician. While some of his qualities are not unique, compared to the president’s disruptive nature, they are appealing in a way that would not have prevailed if we had a typical Republican in the White House.
Trump’s reelection problems are an extension of who he is. Putting aside the narcissism and frequent misstatements of fact, he essentially only thinks one move ahead. So when he decided to have a trade war with China, or imposed tariffs on certain products from the European Union, or threatened the president of Ukraine, he failed to understand the ripple effects of these actions. Worse yet, as Michael Lewis documented in his book “The Fifth Risk,” about the transition from President Obama to President Trump, the current president has never fully staffed his administration.
The large number of acting appointments and unprecedented staff turnover resulted in an administration incapable of even intermediate planning, much less long-term planning. Unfortunately, this means there will not be a true national plan for the post-coronavirus world. That’s why he is now throwing recovery into the governors’ laps. The lack of a unifed national approach, leaving 50 states with different plans and resources, surely will lead to more misery for the American people.
Finally, the American people have been incredibly patient about returning to some degree of normalcy. They seem to grasp the dangers of rushing the timeline, notwithstanding Trump’s desire to reopen as soon as possible. Scientists agree there is likely to be a second wave of the pandemic in the fall.
The economic effects may be equally, or more, devastating, depending on how we reopen. Businesses that survive the first wave may not be able to survive the recurrence if we charge ahead, as the president has urged his most ardent supporters to do. This would further increase unemployment and financial hardship on American families. State and local governments, with crippling declines in tax revenue, will have to severely reduce basic services. If all this aligns with the election and the president continues to not be candid and honest with the American people, the effect on his reelection prospects will be fatal.
As Trump again tries to rally his base to defy guidelines in the states — guidelines that were created by his administration — the rest of the nation will turn away from him and the disruption that is the hallmark of his presidency.
Americans are exhausted by the president’s political theater as we face the greatest medical and economic threat of our lifetime. Americans want a return to a fully engaged government that, while inefficient and frustrating, is competent on the important things.
Biden may not be a perfect candidate, but it is our belief that, in November, the remaining undecided voters will want a leader who demonstrates the empathy that is needed — and sorely lacking — from this president.
Mike Abrams is former chairman of the Dade Democratic Party, a former state legislator and currently a policy adviser to Ballard Partners. Allan Katz was appointed ambassador to Portugal by President Obama in 2009. He currently is a distinguished professor in residence at William Jewell College.
This story was originally published May 1, 2020 at 6:57 PM.