Mahmoud Abbas is ailing. The scramble to replace him as Palestinian leader is on | Opinion

An increasingly intense struggle to succeed the aging and ailing president of the Palestinian National Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, is under way.

The use of armed militias may be key to a contender’s success.

Armed support will be needed if the power struggle turns violent. Such militias could be ordered to take control of symbolic government sites, like the headquarters of the Palestinian Authority presidency in Ramallah, or TV and radio stations. While the PA has not clashed with such militias until now, their presence is a looming one.

Abbas, 84, is not in good health and has been hospitalized repeatedly in recent years. He could exit the scene, in one way or another, suddenly and without warning. The succession of power could take a variety of forms, from smooth transition to violent faceoffs.

Here are some of the contenders to the throne:

Mahmoud al-Aloul is a 70-year-old Fatah Central Committee vice chairman with his own militia. Originally from Nablus, Israel deported him to Jordan in 1971 because of his terrorist activities. A former Nablus governor, his current position provides Aloul with a certain advantage in the leadership struggle. His son, Jihad, was killed by Israeli forces during the Second Intifada. He enjoys a clean image of a leader, not linked to corruption.

Majid Faraj, 56, is a member of a family from Dehehishe refugee camp near Bethlehem. He is known to be close to Abbas, is the head of the PA’s General Intelligence Service and is a prominent candidate. He is seen as a figure who attracts international support. Faraj has recently been the target of an assassination plot in the West Bank, which seems to signal an escalation in the succession struggle. Faraj served six years in an Israeli prison during the First Intifada. He was appointed commander of the GIS in 2009.

Mohammad Shtayyeh, 62, has been the subject of increased rumors lately regarding his growing chances of succeeding Abbas. An economist by training, Shtayyeh has not been involved in the power struggles taking place in the Palestinian arena, but he benefits from cooperation with Aloul. His appointment as prime minister was interpreted by some as an attempt by Abbas to promote him as a successor.

Saeb Erekat, 64, the high-profile negotiator and secretary of the PLO Executive Committee, is a well-known figure, but he lacks sufficient popular support and has no military backing. He suffers from poor health as well, and his chances of being a viable candidate appear low.

Nasser al-Qudwa, 67, was the PLO’s representative to the United Nations, and a nephew of Yasser Arafat. Qudwa enjoys the support of Fatah Central Committee Member Tawfik Tirawi, who has popular support. Qudwa has served as the prime minister of the PA.

Jibril Rajoub, 66, is the Palestinian Football Association chairman and also chairman of the Olympic Committee. Rajoub, a veteran political leader, has support from an armed militia. He hails from the Rajoub clan of the Mount Hebron area and has the backing of the Palestinian Preventative Security, which he once commanded.

Marwan Barghouti, 60, who is serving five life sentences for the murder of Israelis in terrorist attacks, is seen as an outlying candidate. Barghouti enjoys popularity among young Fatah members because of his incarceration in an Israeli prison, and some believe that his path out of jail involves succeeding Abbas. He is also popular in the Gaza Strip, because of his history of armed struggle against Israel.

Mohammed Dahlan, 58, originally from the Khan Younis refugee camp in Gaza, was ejected by Abbas from Fatah’s ranks in 2011. Currently exiled in the United Arab Emirates, he is relatively weak in the West Bank, but maintains a strong influence on Fatah loyalists in Gaza. His standing in the Palestinian arena has grown stronger in recent years, and he has formed alliances with elements in Fatah and the PA. Dahlan’s record of being able to secure financial support for Gaza and the West Bank via Gulf states and on behalf of NGOs has boosted his standing. He also receives support from Egypt and maintains close ties with the government of Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, which views him as a suitable potential successor to Abbas.

When he departs, Abbas will leave behind a mixed legacy, and we will swiftly learn how the transfer of power will occur: orderly transition or violence.

David Hacham served for 30 years in Israel Defense Forces intelligence and was an adviser for Arab affairs to seven Israeli minsters of defense.

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