We can beat the coronavirus — with a strategy based on science and facts | Opinion
Let’s all take a breath. Coronavirus (COVID19) is something we can overcome.
Although the virus has spread far and wide in the 10 weeks since we became aware of its existence, it is possible to combat — but only if we have a rational, evidence-based global approach to all aspects of this disease.
The task is daunting. To succeed we must approach this crisis rationally and strategically. First, we need to understand the scope of the problem. This means having sufficient and reliable testing. Specifically, in addition to testing all individuals whose medical symptoms indicate that testing is appropriate, we also need to do surveillance testing. This is similar to taking a poll to understand where the virus has been, where it is and how and where we can block it from where it might be going.
Knowing our risks is equally important. If you don’t know the risks, you are not likely to use the most useful or cost-effective ways to remain healthy. We have plenty of data about individual risks based on age and pre-existing conditions, but we also need a tool to help us assess which activities alter our risk. This means we need to conduct risk assessments.
Efforts to improve risk assessment are under way, as my colleagues at the World Health Organization (WHO) and I have taken the lead in developing risk assessments for mass gatherings. We currently are developing a scalable, culturally sensitive algorithm and tool applicable to any mass gathering that can help organizers assess risks before deciding whether to go ahead with an event.
The tool considers many details that lead to rational, rather than knee-jerk, decisions. These considerations include the size and nature of the event, types of activities, ages and physical conditions of people attending, cultural aspects of those attending and those in the surrounding community, and the size and capabilities of the healthcare system in the community. It also considers specific information about the virus, its transmissibility and the dangers it poses under different circumstances.
This tool not only helps organizers make decisions, but it also helps them explain their decisions to the public. Recent decisions in the city of Miami to cancel Ultra and Calle Ocho relied on making a risk assessment of the nature of the event, the nature and susceptibility of our community, and the likelihood that holding the mass event could trigger cases among our vulnerable elderly population.
Our WHO team of experts has decades of experience with mass gatherings, which has formed the bases of our recently published WHO document on mass gathering protocols, which helps leaders and event organizers make intelligent, evidence-based decisions. The new tool we are developing leans upon our team’s decades of experience with mass gatherings and risk assessments and adapts that to the current worldwide outbreak of COVID-19.
In the United States and throughout the world, the virus has been a step ahead of our testing techniques, our antiviral treatments, our knowledge of its natural history and our attempts to do proper contact tracing and contain the outbreak. We have worked hard, but 10 weeks is simply not enough time for us to understand the disease, let alone develop the tools to combat a brand-new virus.
But we can turn this around, particularly if we unite and take a disciplined approach to each of the steps needed to end this global outbreak.
We must come together at the local, national and global levels to create an international strategy that uses clear heads and sound science for risk reduction globally. It’s a global one-health problem that demands a global one-health strategy. Together, we can overcome COVID-19.
Aileen M. Marty, M.D., F.A.C.P., is a professor of infectious diseases in the Department of Medicine at the FIU Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine. She has worked with, and for, the World Health Organization in Europe, the Americas and Africa, including the fight against the Ebola epidemic in Nigeria in 2014.