Trump’s test in Venezuela will be how fast legitimate leaders can be elected | Opinion

President Trump’s bold decision to bring indicted Venezuelan narcodictator Nicolás Maduro to justice is the first test of his “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. His Venezuela policy will pass that test when his team moves quickly to commit to elections to choose legitimate leaders who will rebuild their institutions, economy, infrastructure and partnership with the United States.

After capturing Maduro, the president was wise to rule out U.S. military occupation of Venezuela — a country twice the size of California destabilized by treacherous regime leaders, narcoguerrillas, corrupt security forces and agents of hostile regimes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is leading a three-pronged strategy of stabilization, recovery and transition, “running Venezuela” by issuing orders to Maduro’s successor, Delcy Rodriguez.

Rubio must realize that the sole objective of Rodriguez and her comrades is to hold on to power. And, the longer they do, the more likely they will regain their footing, sap the Venezuelan people’s expectations for change and sow resistance to U.S. influence — all with dangerous consequences.

The sooner U.S. policymakers outline a clear timetable for restoring democratic institutions and the rule of law, the sooner new leaders will be able to work with U.S. firms to unlock billions of dollars in oil revenue and to rebuild the country’s infrastructure.

We’ve done this before. For decades before the corrupt strongman Hugo Chávez hijacked Venezuelan democracy in 1998, U.S. oil companies helped make that country a global energy power whose oil output peaked at over three million barrels per day in 2000. Chávez proceeded to depose capable Venezuelan managers and bully most western producers out of the market — and production sank to 500,000 barrels in 2020.

The costs of drawing Venezuela’s thick, sulfurous oil out of the ground are prohibitive — especially with oil prices hovering around $60 per barrel. Twenty-five years of neglect has compounded the immense costs of restoring the country’s petroleum infrastructure — rehabilitating wells, pipelines, storage depots, terminals, refineries, etc.

Commercializing any of Venezuela’s vast natural resources — oil, natural gas, gold and other minerals—requires massive, long-term investments that are not bankable without ironclad assurances that the country’s sovereign institutions, rule of law, respect for contracts and internal security are stable and irreversible. In Venezuela today, that means elections.

Venezuela is not Libya or Iraq. Its people have never been riven by religion or ruled by warlords. Before that South American nation was bankrupted by a criminal regime beginning 25 years ago, Venezuela’s success was managed by democratic leaders and institutions. Today, the tasks of restoring public order, dismantling the instruments of repression, detoxifying the security forces, replacing cutthroat officials and, yes, holding elections, must be transferred steadily and surely to credible Venezuelans who are committed to change.

Venezuelan technocrats working with Nobel Peace Prize laureate and leading presidential contender Maria Corina Machado have crafted detailed plans for reconstructing a law-abiding, free-market U.S. ally. Rubio and his team should install experienced, respected technocrats in key institutions — starting in Washington-based, multilateral development banks and, gradually, within Caracas-based bureaucracies — giving them the mandate and the means to overhaul institutions and organize national elections.

By committing to a democratic transition this year, Trump would be taking an essential step toward tapping the country’s oil wealth as well as lucrative contracts for rebuilding a wrecked economy. And he should work with global partners to track down and seize a half-trillion dollars looted by cronies of the criminal regime from the Venezuelan people.

At a time of partisan polarization on many issues, Trump can score an indisputable foreign policy win for the “Trump Corollary” — by empowering Venezuelans to rebuild their nation, restore a mutually beneficial partnership with the American people and strengthen U.S. influence in our neighborhood.

Roger F. Noriega was U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States and assistant secretary of state for western hemisphere affairs from 2001-05. His governmental relations firm, Visión Américas, LLC, represents U.S. and foreign clients.