It keeps getting harder to live in South Florida. Is it flooding — or cost of living? | Opinion

Miami-Dade County achieved a dubious new distinction in a recent report by the real estate site, Redfin. Among “flood-prone” counties nationwide, we were No. 1 for “outmigration,” with more people moving out than in. Our population was down a total of 67,418 people from July 2023 to July 2024.

It’s daunting to see your county listed in the top spot for flood-prone areas that people are leaving. We want to be known as a place of sun and fun, Art Deco and Art Basel — not a location to be avoided as too risky to take up residence. The Redfin list includes counties in Texas, New York, Louisiana and New Jersey, but there’s also a second Florida county in the top 10: Pinellas County, at No. 7.

Are people moving out because of flooding? That’s one conclusion, as suggested in the report. With more than a third of homes in Miami-Dade facing high flood risk, according to the study, that’s not hard to imagine. King tides and sunny day flooding certainly have become a bigger problem.

More likely, though, is that a variety of issues are making South Florida a less desirable place to live — starting with property insurance costs, homeowners’ and condo association fees, condo assessments and the overall cost of living. As the Herald Editorial Board heard repeatedly from political candidates during interviews before the Nov. 4 election, the top concern of most voters in our area is simple: the cost of living.

The unaffordability problem that is plaguing South Florida isn’t just about property values. It affects the ability to attract new businesses and commerce. Workers need places to live, but wages haven’t kept up with inflation.

And it’s not just buying a house that’s moving out of reach for many, though that is a huge problem. It’s also rent. As the Herald has reported, nearly 60% of Miami-area renters are cost-burdened, meaning they spend at least 30% of their monthly income on housing. And roughly three in 10 are “severely cost-burdened,” spending at least half of their income on housing.

Here’s another indicator of the seriousness of the issue: A recent poll by Florida Atlantic University said a quarter of Floridians have “seriously considered” leaving because of the cost of living. Another 24% said they were “somewhat” considering leaving for the same reason. Inflation was cited as a serious concern by about 56% of those surveyed, and the poll findings called cost of living “the state’s pressure point.”

But what about the Mamdani effect? You know, that wave of wealthy New Yorkers who are supposedly going to pack up and head here — we’re nicknamed the “sixth borough,” by the way — after the election of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani as mayor on Tuesday.

If that happens, it may quiet any talk of South Florida waning as a desirable place to live. That would be OK, except for one big thing: We can’t have those transplants, with New York real estate money in hand, driving up our housing prices even more, as they did during the pandemic. That is the last thing this real estate market needs from an affordability perspective.

The potential new residents would exacerbate a phenomenon already taking place in Florida: those who leave the state tend to have less money than those moving in, as the Herald Editorial Board has previously written.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has been playing into the idea of a rush to Florida, posting an informal survey on X after Mamdani’s win: Should Floridians’ response to the Mamdani election be to build a Florida border wall, impose tariffs on transplants or “recruit new transplants?” Last we checked, a wall was winning.

And then there was the prediction from President Trump, speaking a day after the election at the America Business Forum in Miami, that “Now the Democrats are so extreme that Miami will soon be the refuge of those fleeing communism in New York City.”

Whether that wave of New Yorkers materializes or not, this community will still face serious problems that may be driving people out. That includes flooding that turns streets into rivers when it rains — and a cost of living that threatens to turn this South Florida into a place that’s only for the rich.

This story was originally published November 10, 2025 at 11:25 AM.