Florida governor’s race may show whether exiled Republicans can win as Democrats | Opinion

Any Democrat trying to run for governor in Florida faces an incredibly tough road these days.

Republicans are wildly dominant in state politics. The president lives here. The governor declared a “war on woke” that helped set the national agenda for the GOP. Republicans have locked down many elected offices from Tallahassee to the former blue bastion of Miami-Dade County. A Democrat hasn’t won the governorship in more than two decades, not since Lawton Chiles in 1994.

When it comes to David Jolly, the former Tampa-area congressman and regular commentator on MSNBC who just announced his candidacy for the state’s top job in 2026, there’s one more thing for voters to consider: He’s a Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat. Does that make him more appealing or less?

His political metamorphosis is something of a gift to Republicans, of course, who immediately began trying to capitalize on the “wishy-washy” label his political changes invite, just as they did when former Gov. Charlie Crist’s political affiliations evolved similarly. (He lost two gubernatorial elections as a Democrat in 2014 and 2022.)

For voters, though, there’s a different consideration when it comes to Jolly. In this time of Trump, can a former Republican run as a viable Democrat? Is his political metamorphosis an asset or a liability? Is there any crossover appeal for disenchanted Republican voters or NPAs? About a quarter of the electorate in Florida has no party affiliation — that’s at opportunity for the right candidate.

Democrats are at a very vulnerable point in Florida right now. Active voter registration rolls indicate there are 1.2 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, turning the state firmly from its longtime “swing state” status into a red state. There are no Democrats elected to statewide office.

At the same time, the GOP is now the party of one man, subject to his whims and ideas no matter how unfair or cruel — and that has led some Republican critics of Donald Trump to leave the party, like Jolly.

Jolly was a Republican during his three years as a member of the U.S. House from 2014 to 2017, but he became a never-Trumper early on, calling on Trump to drop out of his first presidential race in 2015 based on his position that the U.S. should ban all Muslims from entering the country. With Trump’s announcement Wednesday of a ban on entry from 12 countries, including Haiti, and the partial ban of others including Cuba and Venezuela, Jolly’s break from the Republican party over immigration becomes a crucial point for voters to consider.

Jolly left the Republican Party in 2018, registering with no party affiliation, though he says he had felt increasingly aligned with Democrats. In April, he registered as a Democrat.

Jolly is not alone in leaving the GOP and becoming a Democrat. For example, Joe Walsh, the former Illinois congressman who was once a tea party Republican, said this week that he has become a Democrat and may run for office again. His main reason: to defeat his former party, which he now sees as a threat to democracy and rule of law.

We should also note that Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House spokesperson for the Biden administration, also announced she has left the Democratic Party and is now an independent. There’s turmoil in U.S. politics these days on both sides of the aisle.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis can’t run for reelection; he’s termed out. Trump endorsed U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds even as DeSantis’ wife, Casey, was considering her own run. In addition, Florida Sen. Jason Pizzo of Miami, who left the Democratic Party in April pronouncing it “dead,” has also said he’s running as an independent.

As Jolly launched his campaign this week, he was talking about the affordability crisis and insurance costs, peppering his speech with comments about “common sense” and morality. He’s the son of a Baptist pastor but believes in “reproductive choice.” And on immigration, he told the Herald and the Editorial Board that, “Republicans conflate immigration with crime, and it’s wrong.”

Important issues all but beyond that, Jolly’s candidacy in Florida may determine whether Republicans who feel exiled from the party of Trump can succeed as Democrats.

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This story was originally published June 5, 2025 at 12:59 PM.