Yes, Trump voters might help pass abortion rights in Florida. Why that’s not a surprise | Opinion

If recent polling is correct, Florida is likely to pass a constitutional amendment to legalize abortion rights while voting in large numbers for Republicans Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, who threaten those same rights.

A CBS/YouGov poll released in late May showed Amendment 4 — which would make abortion legal up to the point of viability — would meet the 60% threshold needed for approval. Another May Florida Chamber of Commerce poll found the amendment would get 61% support among Florida voters. Both polls showed Trump and Scott leading their Democratic opponents comfortably.

Here’s what that could mean:

First, the hope of Democrats that abortion rights could put Florida back in play for them isn’t guaranteed to materialize. The U.S. Supreme Court ruling that overturned abortion rights under Roe v. Wade helped Democrats fend off a Republican wave in the 2022 midterm elections. But there’s nuance to that. In other states where voters approved abortion rights referendums they also elected GOP candidates, even if they were against those same rights. Voters, after all, don’t always behave in straightforward partisan ways.

Biden’s disastrous debate performance was made worse by his struggle to articulate his position on abortion, which should have been easy. Like many of his answers, his position was incomprehensible. If the party’s standard bearer cannot make the case for reproductive rights, that signals trouble.

Second, the polls suggest that support for reproductive rights transcends the bitter division between MAGA and anti-MAGA voters. If the results hold up in November, that probably means some voters will vote for Amendment 4 and Trump. That might be because abortion, unlike the economy and inflation, ranks lower on the list of Florida voters’ priorities, according to the CBS/YouGov poll.

Trump has boasted about appointing the three U.S. Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade. In 2023, he said he was “proud to be the most pro-life president,” though now he’s tried to soften his stance on the issue ahead of the November election. Yet, tellingly, 51% of voters in the CBS/YouGov poll neither blame or credit Trump with the overturn of Roe. Again, that might quash Democratic aspirations that abortion is their secret weapon in Florida.

Third, these polls suggest how out of touch the Republican-led Legislature was in passing the six-week abortion ban Amendment 4 would overturn. Even within the GOP there’s sizable support for reproductive rights. The CBS poll showed that 41% of Republicans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases (among all voters, that support was at 65%). Perhaps Floridians across the political spectrum are beginning to see what happens to women when strict bans like Florida’s are in place: often, they cannot get the care they need when a pregnancy goes wrong because doctors are afraid to perform emergency abortions out of fear the state might second guess their medical decision.

This points to an even broader issue with our democracy: The people elected to represent us can represent the most extreme aspects of partisan politics. Often elected in House and Senate districts designed to be safely Republican or Democratic, they answer to the more ideological primary voters than to the broader electorate.

Four, that Trump and abortion rights could be victorious in the same election is not a surprise, and there’s a precedent for it.

In 2020, Trump won Florida a second time — and with a broader margin than in 2016. That same year, Florida voters approved what appeared to be a Democratic priority: raising the state minimum wage to $15 by 2026. The measure received more votes than Trump or Biden.

This should teach that Americans don’t always think in blue and red terms. Yes, there are staunchly partisan voters, but there are also many whose views are more nuanced, which helps explain the the growth in independent voters in recent years. So, yes, it’s possible that Republicans and abortion rights could win in November.

Most importantly, regardless of party affiliation, the people must speak up against Florida’s extreme position on reproductive rights.

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