A DeSantis loss in Iowa might loosen his grip on Florida. That would be good | Opinion

It’s that time again. The Florida Legislature’s 2024 session begins on Jan. 9, and lawmakers have been meeting for months to line up an agenda that includes weakening child labor laws, expanding the state’s healthcare workforce, continuing to attack LGBTQ people and public schools and figuring out how to rein in artificial intelligence. (Good luck with that one.)

But the big question hanging over this year’s lawmaking session will be the role of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Last year, the session was essentially a coronation for presidential hopeful DeSantis, touted back then as Republicans’ strongest hope to derail Donald Trump after his attempt to overthrow the 2020 election. The Legislature last year served mostly as a rubber stamp for DeSantis. In those heady days, after his 2022 reelection by a 20-point margin, he was dubbed “DeFuture” in a New York Post headline.

This time around, though, the 2024 session could be mighty awkward for both the governor and the Republican Legislature. In the first few weeks of the session, Republicans in both Iowa and New Hampshire will be choosing a nominee for president. Will those votes end DeSantis’ White House bid? He has staked nearly his entire campaign on Iowa. And yet polls continue to show him fighting with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley for a distant second place, with Trump way out ahead.

State lawmakers, whose futures often rely on aligning themselves with those in power, are no doubt watching closely. They may well face the question in just a few weeks of how much they need to listen to a term-limited governor whose presidential ambitions were thwarted.

DeSantis was angry enough before — just ask Disney. And he’ll have three more years in office, through 2026. What kind of damage could he do to the state in that time? Will he be able to wield the same force, or something close to it?

In politics, if there’s a vacuum of power, someone will fill it. DeSantis has already been absent for important committee meetings held in Tallahassee before the session, the ones lawmakers use to hammer out which bills to focus on and what the year’s legislative priorities will be.

The governor did release his proposed budget in December, offering some ideas of his focus for Florida in 2024. It included tax breaks on hot-button items like property insurance policies, more money for Everglades restoration, $10 million for security at houses of worship and other gathering places threatened by antisemitism and more money for teachers and to handle the demand for school vouchers. He also asks lawmakers for another $5 million to continue his controversial migrant relocation efforts.

Iowa caucuses

But his main focus in the last few months? There’s no question about it: Iowa.

Republicans, of course, will spin this sticky situation as no big deal. “The governor is as strong as ever with the Legislature, so what’s happening nationally will have no impact here,” Sarasota Sen. Joe Gruters, former chair of the Florida Republican Party and a Trump supporter, insisted to the Orlando Sentinel.

That sounds a lot like wishful thinking. House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell of Tampa was probably closer to the truth when she said a presidential defeat for DeSantis “may embolden the Florida GOP to not be so lockstep with him.”

If polling is an indication, the governor really might have a hard time reasserting himself. In a Mainstreet Research and Florida Atlantic University poll last fall, about half of those surveyed — 49% — disapproved of the way he is handling his job as governor, up from 43% earlier in the year.

As governor, DeSantis would retain his power to veto legislation, which could be a useful cudgel to force lawmakers into submission. And, with so much time left in his term, perhaps he would be able to carve out a role as a chief spokesman for Republicans. He’s certainly familiar to Fox News viewers.

There’s no doubt DeSantis, if defeated in the presidential primary, will still carry a lot of weight among Florida lawmakers and voters. But will it be a return to 2023? Highly doubtful. And that would be a good thing for the people, who deserve a robust debate in government, not a government run by one man.

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