Florida’s property tax plan isn’t conservative governance — it’s fiscal roulette | Opinion

When Floridians vote in November on the Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes amendment, they may think they’re erasing property taxes for most homeowners. But school taxes won’t be eliminated, and many people will still receive a tax bill.

There’s a gap between what’s being promised and what is on the actual ballot. And that reflects a larger issue: This process has been rushed and poorly explained from the beginning.

The Legislature had an entire session to address Florida’s affordability crisis. This constitutional amendment is what lawmakers produced. Yet basic questions remain unanswered. How much county revenue will be lost? Which services will be cut? How will the budget shortfall be made up?

Last year, Gov. Ron DeSantis vetoed funding to study property tax elimination. In May, he called a special session and urged the Legislature to put it on the ballot.

Property tax relief sounds good on paper, but rushing an amendment of this magnitude without understanding its consequences is irresponsible governance.

The ballot amendment would incrementally raise homestead exemptions on primary residences from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 — erasing property taxes entirely for most Florida homeowners. Or so they think.

As a renter in Miami, I don’t have a direct stake in property tax relief. But as a conservative, I believe government should be transparent, deliberate and fiscally responsible.

But that’s not happening here. This isn’t simply a tax cut. It’s a tax shift.

The Tax Foundation warns that if county and municipal governments raise millage rates to make up for lost tax revenue, it could “result in higher property taxes on the portion of the value of homestead properties that remains taxable.” Those changes could cause renters, businesses and second-home owners to have to pay more.

But if increasing the millage rate doesn’t close the gap, the Florida Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, estimates that state’s sales tax would need to be doubled to make up for the lost revenue.

In Miami-Dade County, the impact of the property tax cuts would be sizable. Revenue loss projections for 2027 are estimated to be roughly $386 million, which could force cuts to fire rescue, Jackson Health System and our county library system. That’s a massive budget gap.

Former Republican Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp, now CEO of Florida TaxWatch told WFLA, “This is way too important to just rush through in a matter of days, which is what happened here.” And former state Sen. Jeff Brandes, founder of the Florida Policy Project noted that, “There hasn’t been any county-by-county analysis or implementation plan.”

Counties with the highest concentrations of homesteaded properties are the ones who will most likely suffer a major revenue loss. Those counties include Flagler, Sumter and Hernando County. For them, this measure could be “an extinction event,” Brandes said on X.

I agree with Brandes, who recently said this isn’t tax reform but a leap of faith.

If voters approve the amendment in November, lawmakers will have to quickly pass implementing legislation before it takes effect in January. Legal challenges are practically guaranteed, and taxpayers will be paying for the state’s actions in those lawsuits.

Florida Republicans have long criticized Democrats for passing major policy first and figuring out the details later. Now isn’t the time to embrace the same approach because the phrase “tax relief” is attached to it.

Mary Anna Mancuso is a member of the Miami Herald Editorial Board. Her email: mmancuso@miamiherald.com