Miami’s Latino shift wasn’t a realignment — Republicans must deliver or lose it | Opinion

Latino voters in Texas sent a clear message by overwhelmingly voting Democrat last week: their support isn’t guaranteed. Republicans should take note, if they want to keep control of Congress.

National groups are already responding. The LIBRE Initiative Action, a nonprofit Latino advocacy group affiliated with the Koch family’s conservative political network, is ramping up outreach efforts in key states to reconnect with Latino voters who helped Republicans win in recent elections. For states likes Ohio, Michigan and Texas, that’s a smart strategy.

In Miami, it’s a warning.

Republicans aren’t trying to win Latino voters in Miami-Dade County — they’re trying to keep them. In some ways, that’s a bigger challenge.

The county didn’t turn red overnight. It shifted because Latino voters were frustrated by rising costs and inflation, and they moved away from Democrats in 2024. That shift isn’t necessarily permanent. And without tangible economic relief, it can easily be undone.

That’s what makes LIBRE’s efforts worth watching.

Daniel Garza, president of LIBRE, told CBS News, “In every poll that we’ve seen and everywhere we go, the economy continues to be number one for the voting Latino citizen.”

Affordability remains a defining issue across South Florida. Housing costs have risen since the pandemic. Property insurance continues to burden homeowners. Small business owners are experiencing their own set of problems with rising costs and broader economic pressures.

The daily reality of families trying to make ends meet outweighs political messaging or glossy campaign mailers.

And that’s the disconnect Republicans risk missing.

There isn’t any amount of outreach LIBRE can do that will compensate if voters don’t think their economic situation is improving. Knocking on doors to ask for votes won’t lower rent and phone banking won’t lower property insurance.

This is where national strategy and local reality diverge.

Republicans have made serious gains in Florida. I can understand why they’d view the state as a given. But Miami isn’t the rest of Florida. It has a complex, diverse electorate that has shown it will shift based on results — not party loyalty.

The recent outcome of the Miami mayoral race hinted at that volatility, when Eileen Higgins, who received help from the Democratic National Committee, beat Cuban-American, Trump-endorsed candidate Emilio Gonzalez — and it shouldn’t be ignored.

Some Republican strategists are warning the party is misreading Latino voters and over estimating their gains — a concern that is warranted. Without real economic relief, Latino support will only become more volatile.

The Latino vote isn’t a monolith, nor is it bound by party loyalty. Economic conditions drove the shift in 2024 and will determine what happens next.

Which is why the stakes for Republicans in 2026 are higher than they appear. The midterms won’t be a continuation of 2024. They’ll be a test of whether the GOP can convert recent political gains into more wins at the ballot box.

Florida Republicans should resist the temptation to interpret inroads with Latinos as a political realignment. It wasn’t one. They need to focus, instead, on coming up with ways to actually improve the economic picture for Latinos and Floridians as a whole.

That will go a lot further to keep GOP gains in the state than any amount of voter outreach.

After years working in Republican politics, I can tell you that one piece of advice I gave every candidate still applies — never take voters for granted. In South Florida, that’s not a platitude — it’s a prediction for the midterm elections. If expectations aren’t met, Latino voters won’t hesitate to move on.

Mary Anna Mancuso is a member of the Miami Herald Editorial Board. Her email: mmancuso@miamiherald.com