Maduro’s capture isn’t a guaranteed boost for Miami Republicans in November | Opinion

It’s still too early to tell what comes next for Venezuela, but one thing is clear: Nicolás Maduro’s capture isn’t going to protect the GOP’s majority in Congress this November.

The news of Maduro in custody has brought catharsis for many, especially in Miami. But beyond the immediate reaction, this isn’t a guaranteed political advantage. And it could become a liability.

The president called the operation necessary, but the aftermath has been ambiguous. There’s no clear vision for restoring democracy — no electoral timeline, transition plan or clarity about who’s in charge of the country. (It’s supposed to be Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, but is it also Secretary of State Marco Rubio? No one knows.) During Saturday’s press conference, Trump said the United States would “run” the country, a position that was later walked back by some administration officials — and has caused heartburn for GOP members.

The concern is warranted. Party members have warned for years against foreign intervention, citing the costly lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan. This isn’t about whether Maduro deserved to be removed — he did. It’s about not knowing what the plan is, going forward. Is there one?

Trump campaigned in 2024 on “no new wars,” and blasted former President Joe Biden and Democrats for foreign entanglements and the failed withdrawal from Afghanistan. During his inaugural address, Trump promised to avoid unnecessary wars — a promise that helped cement his support among the America First crowd, who wanted to focus on problems at home, not abroad.

Operation Absolute Resolve — however morally justified — is the kind of foreign intervention many Americans wanted to leave behind. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that while two-thirds of Republicans support Maduro’s capture, a majority of Americans worry the U.S. will become too involved — a disconnect Republicans must address before Democrats capitalize on it.

Anyone who remembers Iraq knows removing a dictator doesn’t equate to seeing a functioning democracy in place overnight. Maduro’s capture is the beginning, not the end. Virtually all of his regime remains in place, with Rodriguez as interim president. Venezuela’s future is uncertain, and America is tied to the outcome.

A free and fair election in Venezuela before the U.S. midterms — a big if — would be a win for Trump and the GOP. It would help put to bed concerns over another failed nation-building exercise, and Republicans could take credit for helping to deliver freedom.

However, if the country falls into Madurism without Maduro, the attack on Venezuela will become an albatross for Republicans.

Republican leaders in Miami told me that some Venezuelans they spoke with in Doral are thankful for Trump’s actions, but uncertainty remains. Some are relieved and hopeful, but many are asking the same question: What happens now?

So far, this is an accomplishment for Trump that resonates strongly in Miami-Dade County, home to the largest Venezuelan community in the country.

But it doesn’t translate nationwide. Most Americans, regardless of party affiliation, don’t assign too much importance to Venezuela; they care about housing costs, groceries and making ends meet.

The midterms will hinge on the economy — an issue that has consistently ranked top among voters’ concerns.

The GOP has 10 months to prove it has improved voters’ daily lives. But adding a foreign policy quagmire increases the electoral risk.

Maduro is gone, but Venezuela’s future is in limbo, and the U.S.’s involvement has just begun. Keeping control of Congress will require discipline and focus by the GOP. Chaos in Venezuela — or even muddled American involvement — will be the opposite of what the party needs right now.

The GOP should avoid taking a premature victory lap on Maduro’s capture. The 2026 midterm election will be won where most elections are — the kitchen table.

Mary Anna Mancuso is a member of the Miami Herald Editorial Board. Her email: mmancuso@miamiherald.com

This story was originally published January 8, 2026 at 9:05 AM.