The Miami GOP enters 2026 with an electoral advantage, but there’s a catch | Opinion
A new year generally brings hope and resolutions. If you’re a Republican in Miami, 2026 should also bring a bit of caution with the midterms on the horizon.
Historically, the party in power is usually punished at the ballot box during the midterm elections — especially when voters are dealing with affordability issues.
Affordability is a critical issue in South Florida. Grocery bills, housing costs and insurance premiums don’t respect party lines. Neither does anxiety over paying bills or putting food on the table.
As the Miami Herald reported, Democrats have identified affordability as a potentially defining issue in 2026. Republicans should take note.
“Republicans can’t really blame anyone but themselves, given the fact that they’ve had universal control of state government for now almost three decades,” said Fernand Amandi, a pollster and strategist for Democrat David Jolly’s gubernatorial campaign.
Immigration will probably be the other top issue for voters in 2026. Will the party be dealing with backlash on that topic too? It depends on whether you think President Trump is keeping his promises on immigration — or that he has gone too far. How that plays out in immigrant-built Miami-Dade County, which went for Trump in the last election, may be an indicator of where the party is headed.
But all of this means there’s an opportunity in 2026 for Miami Republicans — if they’re prepared to answer the tough questions on immigration and deliver plans to make cities like Miami affordable again.
On immigration, former Florida Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a Republican, told the Herald, “The immigration issue, remarkably, has become toxic for Republicans. Just a little over a year ago, it was extremely toxic for Democrats, and Republicans have turned that issue over in a year’s time.”
That’s true, and it should be a warning to Republicans about the next election. Since Trump took office, Miami-Dade has seen him go beyond the promise of deporting criminals and go after others who have Temporary Protected Status. That has led some of his staunchest local supporters to break ranks. State Sen. Ileana Garcia, a Miami Republican and co-founder of Latinas for Trump in 2016, joined U.S. Rep. Maria Salazar speaking out against Trump’s immigration overly broad enforcement.
Despite all the heat on the immigration issue, Miami-Dade County Chairman Kevin Cooper insists that affordability — not immigration — is the leading concern of voters. “The vast majority of the conversations we’ve had have been on the economic side of things,” Cooper told me.
I think affordability is going to play the biggest role in the election, even more than immigration, even in Miami-Dade. And that’s where the GOP should be concentrating.
Cooper said that Miami residents are seeing gas prices falling, which should then cause other cost of living expenses to come down over the next few months. He was optimistic, saying, “I think by the time the election comes around, the results of the Republican agenda will be visible, and progress will be made.”
The Florida Legislature and the governor want to eliminate property taxes as a way to lower the cost of living. That may help a bit, but it requires voter approval and not every Floridian will benefit equally.
Republicans would be smart to remember the lessons of 2018. Even with a strong economy and low unemployment during Trump’s first term, the GOP still lost control of Congress. Historically, presidents’ party usually lose control in the midterms. In fact, the last time a president’s party maintained control of Congress during mid-term elections was in 2002 when George W. Bush was president.
Midterms are referendums on leadership, policies and whether voters believe they’re better off. Cooper told me that, thanks to Republican policies, Florida is a great place to live, work and raise a family. I agree. But for those who are still struggling to make ends meet, the optimism can be a tough sell.
In 2018, Miami-Dade County voted Democratic, but in 2022, flipped the county red when it re-elected Gov. Ron DeSantis and then voted for Trump in 2024. The Miami-Dade Republican Party has held onto that momentum, but it shouldn’t get complacent. There’s a long way to go before next November, and a lot of uncertainty still looms.
Mary Anna Mancuso is a member of the Miami Herald Editorial Board. Her email: mmancuso@miamiherald.com