Is American democracy at risk of dying by a thousand map cuts? | Opinion

American democracy won’t collapse the way our imaginations picture it. There won’t be a single moment that delivers the death blow. It collapses by a slow erosion of political norms and institutions.

Like what we’re watching now. Republicans and Democrats are locked in a race to redraw congressional maps mid-decade. Both parties convince themselves that breaking the rules is right and just.

But gerrymandering isn’t a path to political survival; it’s a shortcut that risks undermining the institutions that hold America together.

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump spoke by phone on CNBC’s Squawk Box and while discussing his 2024 win in Texas, he claimed, “We are entitled to five more seats.”

But congressional seats are determined every 10 years by U.S. Census data, not presidential outcomes. The last census was in 2020; the next one in 2030. States don’t normally redraw maps between those years — unless their constitution allows mid-decade redistricting.

Last week, Texas approved a new congressional map creating five new seats. In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis has begun pushing for new maps as well, claiming the state was undercounted by the 2020 census. “Florida should have gotten at least one more seat in Congress,” DeSantis said.

Statistically, he’s right — undercounting happens. But historically, the remedy for undercounting is to implement corrective measures at the next census — not redraw maps ahead of midterm elections.

Democrats are responding in kind. California’s State Legislature approved a plan to redraw its congressional districts with voters deciding on redistricting in a special election on Nov. 4.

At a press conference last week, California Gov. Gavin Newsom justified this move, pointing to Trump’s tactics and saying: “Can’t win by playing by traditional sets of rules. He plays by no rules. And we’re standing up to that. We’re responding to that. They fired the first shot, Texas.”

This kind of tit-for-tat mentality is what makes the current moment so dangerous. Both parties are treating the midterm elections as warfare.

As former White House Senior Advisor to former President George W. Bush Karl Rove told me on a phone call this week, in his view, the race to redistricting is already here: “There are no ifs, ands or buts about it.”

Critics argue Democrats shouldn’t sit idly by while Republicans bend the rules — that fighting fire with fire is the only way to respond when someone else breaks the rules that protect democracy. But breaking democratic norms, even to save democracy, undermines the very institutions meant to protect it.

It’s too early to tell, but both parties may see fallout as a result of what happens in Texas and California. What feels like a win today could backfire the next time power changes hands.

Neither party is guaranteed to win next November. Historically, the president’s party loses control of Congress in the midterms — true for Trump in 2018 and former President Joe Biden in 2022. The last president who defied the trend was former President George W. Bush in 2002.

If both parties normalize rewriting maps when it’s convenient, voters will believe electoral outcomes are predetermined by state legislatures rather than decided at the ballot box.

Rove was honest about the broader risk to the system, saying, “This is not going to engender greater confidence in the system.”

And once trust is lost, restoring it becomes nearly impossible.

Redistricting ahead of 2026 establishes a precedent. But Rove argues political norms are already gone.

“We’re in a period where norms have been knocked down,” Rove told me, “and it’s not just the president who’s in there. It’s his predecessor as well.”

Political institutions aren’t hurdles to overcome; they’re the bedrock of our country. Preserving democracy means trusting in the guardrails that have carried this nation forward. Once both parties justify breaking rules under the guise of protecting democracy, the great experiment is already lost.

Mary Anna Mancuso is a member of the Miami Herald Editorial Board. Her email: mmancuso@miamiherald.com

This story was originally published August 26, 2025 at 11:17 AM.