El Niño heats up faster than expected. What does that mean for hurricane season?

El Niño is likely to show up sooner than previously expected, as early as late May, meaning it could have a better chance of hindering hurricanes later in the season, experts say.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in an update on Thursday that El Niño has an 82% chance of emerging from May to July 2026. The earlier it forms, the more likely it is to have an impact on hurricane season, which officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

El Niño is a weather cycle that occurs when trade winds over the Pacific weaken, causing warm water to pile up along the Pacific coast of equatorial South America.

Instead of thunderstorms brewing near Indonesia, they mushroom up in the Central Pacific, setting off a chain reaction of weather effects that are felt globally, and including within the Atlantic hurricane season.

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This story was originally published May 16, 2026 at 1:08 PM.