A ‘super El Niño’ might form. Here’s how it could affect hurricane season

Forecasters expect El Niño to develop this summer, possibly strengthening into a “super El Niño” by October and hindering hurricane formation.

El Niño patterns typically increase high altitude wind shear over the Atlantic Basin during summer and fall, which can topple hurricanes as they form over the ocean.

The current La Niña is fading. And there’s a 62% chance of El Niño developing during June, July and August, according to forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Water temperature trends in the Pacific indicate that there’s a 33% chance of a “super” El Niño by October, November and December.

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This story was originally published March 18, 2026 at 3:11 PM.