Models diverge in potential paths of soon-to-form storm in Caribbean
.png "The next named storm this season, Melissa, has a high chance of forming this week.")
The next named storm of the season is very likely to form in the Caribbean in the next week, but its path is much more uncertain.
As of 2 p.m. Monday, the National Hurricane Center gives the tropical wave it’s been eyeing a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and a 90% chance within the next seven days — a jump from earlier in the morning.
Conditions are getting better for development and it’s slowing down, the hurricane center said, which should allow it to form in the next day or two. After that, long-range hurricane models are split on the fate of the future storm, which could be named Melissa.
Some of the models suggest the storm could take its time pulling together and head straight west, toward Mexico. Others have pointed toward a possible hook north over the Dominican Republic and Haiti — potentially as soon as Thursday — and a path north through the Caribbean.
Very few of the models are suggesting anything that could approach Florida or the continental U.S.
“If this becomes #Melissa faster, its likely to make the turn later this week, and potentially impacting Hispaniola & Puerto Rico. If it develops slower, it could become a significant hurricane threat further west next week,” wrote Dylan Federico, a meteorologist for WSVN, on X Monday morning.
The hurricane center warned residents of Puerto Rico, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica to be prepared for potentially heavy rain, flooding and strong winds this week.
This story was originally published October 20, 2025 at 8:05 AM.
