Florida could get scraped by soon-to-be Imelda but ‘too soon’ to know impacts
.png "The tropical wave now has a 90% chance of developing into Tropical Storm Imelda in the next two days.")
The chances that Florida will feel rain, surf and winds from a tropical system next week continues to rise.
Category 1 Hurricane Humberto is on track to steer clear of the U.S. coast. But the tropical wave under watch all week is on the cusp on developing into a tropical depression or storm — potentially as soon as Friday evening.
The Miami office of the National Weather Service warned Friday that there were two potential impact scenarios for Florida, depending on what happens with the storm, but said it was “too soon” to know for sure. The more likely scenario, the NWS said, is that the storm stays farther offshore and South Florida’s biggest impact is rough surf starting Sunday.
A less likely scenario is that the storm ends up scraping close along the coast, bringing bouts of heavy rain, winds and strong surf to the East Coast.
The National Hurricane Center has yet to issue a forecast cone for the system, but said it may issue storm watches and warnings as soon as Friday evening.
Long-range storm models continue to suggest the storm will likely develop over the Bahamas and head north over the next few days. From there, the models split. Some take the system into the Carolinas for landfall and others see it getting drawn out to sea by the more powerful Hurricane Humberto, which is only a few hundred miles west of the system.
“While there remains considerable uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week,” the hurricane center said.
Friday afternoon, the chances of development were high: 90% in the next two or seven days.
The hurricane center said they expect the system to form a depression by late Friday or early Saturday and strengthen into a tropical storm — which would be named Imelda — over the weekend.
“Until the system gets a well defined center and we get dropsonde data from hurricane hunter aircraft, there is little confidence in the track/intensity forecast,” wrote James Spann, meteorologist for Birmingham’s WBMA on X Friday morning.
Hurricane Humberto is also an important piece of the puzzle. Humberto, the third hurricane of the season, is expected to strengthen into a major Category 3 storm as soon as Saturday. The powerful hurricane swirling just a few hundred miles to the east of the tropical system in the Caribbean could yank it east, if conditions align.
That could help steer the storm, potentially Imelda, away from landfall in the Southeast.
This story was originally published September 26, 2025 at 8:07 AM.
