New forecast cone for soon-to-be Tropical Storm Imelda stays off South Florida
A tropical storm is forecast to scrape by Florida’s east coast during the weekend, then strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane and weaken before potentially making landfall in the Carolinas as soon as Wednesday.
South Florida could see rough surf starting Sunday, and if the storm verges closer to Florida, then bands of rain and wind gusts could rake the state, although the worst impacts are expected to remain offshore.
The National Hurricane Center released a forecast cone early, before the system had strengthened into a tropical depression or storm, so that it could issue watches and warnings to places in its path.
The northwestern Bahamas is under a tropical-storm watch, which means the area could see tropical-storm conditions in the next 48 hours. The central Bahamas is under a tropical-storm warning, which means that tropical-storm conditions are expected in the next 36 hours.
Forecasters said the system is likely to strengthen into a tropical depression on Saturday morning, just south of the Bahamas, and then into Tropical Storm Imelda on Saturday night or early Sunday as it crosses the island chain.
By Monday afternoon, Imelda could briefly strengthen into a hurricane before weakening back to a tropical storm ahead of landfall in South Carolina.
The system’s path over the next few days could be less predictable than normal, because it’s only a few hundred miles west of Hurricane Humberto, which is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane by Sunday. It’s unclear how the two storms will interact, forecasters said.
“If the system moves on the fast side of the guidance, it will likely be more influenced by the U.S. trough that is expected to cut off. In that scenario, the disturbance would move inland over the southeast U.S. early next week. Conversely, if the system moves on the slow side of the guidance, Humberto’s circulation will cause the steering currents to collapse, resulting in this system stalling near the southeast coast or drifting eastward,” the hurricane center wrote in the 5 p.m. update.
This story was originally published September 26, 2025 at 4:52 PM.
