Chances of a new storm forming in Atlantic drop as it moves west. See forecast

The likelihood of a tropical wave in the Atlantic developing into a storm continues to drop, although parts of the Caribbean may still feel effects next week. If the storm does develop,

“Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for further development, and the chances of this system becoming a tropical depression continue to diminish,” National Hurricane Center forecasters said in the 2 p.m. Saturday update.

The wave is moving at a 10 to 15 mph pace and will likely be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week, forecasters say.

The National Hurricane Center has reduced the system’s development odds to just a 20% chance of strengthening over the next two days and a 20% chance within the next seven days. If the system does develop, any impact on the deeper Caribbean — or Florida — could come next weekend or early into the week of Sept. 15.

“#91L is pretty much kaput due to subsidence, stability, and dry air preventing convection from developing,” Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, posted on X on Saturday morning. “We’re basically at the peak of hurricane season, and it’s been a surprisingly quiet one outside of #Erin. But still a ways to go!”

This story was originally published September 6, 2025 at 8:49 AM.