A new storm could form in the Atlantic as soon as next week and head west
.png "Chances of formation have fallen for a tropical wave in the Atlantic.")
The tropical wave in the Atlantic is likely to develop into a tropical storm in the next few days, but it’s not quite there yet.
On Friday morning, the system was still disorganized. And some of the longer-range computer models, known as spaghetti models, now forecast that the system will fall apart under the strain of too much dry air.
But most of the other models still show the system getting its act together and becoming the next named storm of the season — Gabrielle — as it moves west toward the eastern Caribbean islands by the middle of next week.
As of the 2 p.m. Friday update, the National Hurricane Center lowered the system’s high chances of developing — to a 40% chance of strengthening in the next two days and a 70% chance within the next seven days.
The hurricane center said formation was likely early next week, but dry air wrapped around the storm could hold it back from strengthening over the weekend. It warned residents in the Antilles to keep an eye on the storm, which could approach the islands by Wednesday or Thursday.
That would put any possible impacts on the deeper Caribbean — or Florida — at days after that, potentially around next weekend or early into the week of Sept. 15.
“Definitely worth keeping an eye on in the islands still until the forecast becomes more clear,” Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami, posted on X on Friday morning.
This story was originally published September 5, 2025 at 8:29 AM.
