Chances continue to rise for a new system in the Atlantic this week
.png "Chances continue to rise for a new tropical depression to form this week.")
The chances that a tropical storm or depression forms in the Atlantic this week continue to rise, but it’s still too soon to know the path.
As of 2 p.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center held steady the disturbance in the eastern Atlantic’s shot at developing at 30% in the next two days and 70% in the next seven days.
Forecasters said a tropical depression is likely to form this week and head west, toward the Caribbean. It’s still thousands of miles away, and even if it does form in the next few days, it wouldn’t be near the Caribbean or Gulf or East Coast for at least seven more days.
This early on, the system does not have a defined center, which makes it difficult for global weather models to understand where exactly it is and predict where it might go, so they’re far less accurate.
So far, the weather models have begun to show something similar — a western push over the next few days until it reaches the Caribbean. From there, they begin to split a bit. Some show another curve north out to the open ocean, like Hurricane Erin and others this season; others show it continuing into the middle Caribbean.
“Most global models continue to show the system gaining latitude with a northward turn before reaching the Gulf or the U.S... but it is still simply too early to know the final destination or intensity,” wrote James Spann, a meteorologist for WBMA in Alabama, on X on Tuesday morning.
The next name on the storm list is Gabrielle.
This story was originally published September 2, 2025 at 8:13 AM.
