New disturbance following Hurricane Erin. It’s far off but forecasters watching it
Hurricane Erin is a Category 4 steamroller just a few hundred miles off the Florida coast, but thanks to high-tech forecast technology, it’s clear that the Sunshine State will avoid landfall as the storm cruises up along the southeast coast.
However, with one threat nearly out of the way, eyes have turned to a new disturbance in the far east Atlantic. It could be one worth watching for potential impacts to the Caribbean and Florida.
As of Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center predicts the tropical wave has a 60% chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm in the next seven days, and upped its chances of development in the next two days to 10%.
The hurricane center said the system is expected to head west this week and could approach the eastern Caribbean islands, like Antigua, by Friday.
The system is thousands of miles away from occupied land with more than a week of potential strengthening (or weakening) ahead of it, so meteorologists caution that it’s too soon to be anxious about it.
This wave is so new that the hurricane center has yet to dub it an “invest,” a technical term that kicks off heightened scrutiny and allows global hurricane models to pick up the system and begin issuing estimated forecast tracks.
“Take a deep breath. NOT an invest, it’s just a wave. Even if this were to develop right now, its over 3300 miles away. It would take roughly 2 weeks to get here. Plenty of time to watch,” Phil Ferro, meteorologist for WSVN, wrote on X Monday. “It’s a good reminder that were are venturing into the peak of hurricane season.”
Unlike Erin, this system has less favorable conditions around it for development anytime soon, meteorologists say. This far out, it’s very unclear how — or if — the system will come together and where it could go.
Hurricane hunters are scheduled to fly through the disturbance on Thursday, which would bring help feed storm models with crucial data for forecasts.
Ryan Truchelut, of Tallahassee-based Weather Tiger, wrote in his newsletter that the system was “something to watch” for the U.S. and likely to be a rain threat to the Antilles this weekend.
“That uncertainty makes it tough to say much about that will eventually happen to this wave,” he wrote. “Overall, while an out-to-sea track following Erin is most likely if this wave develops faster/farther north, it’s not clear what would happen long-term if it consolidates to the south.”
The next name on the list is Fernand.
