Tropical Storm Erin strengthens as it heads west toward Caribbean
Tropical Storm Erin has begun strengthening as it streaks west across the Atlantic and is on track to reach hurricane status as soon as Friday, prompting tropical storm watches in the northern Leeward Islands.
As of Thursday afternoon, Barbuda, Antigua, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Sint Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius and under a tropical storm watch, meaning they could see tropical-storm strength winds in the next few days.
The National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast keeps the storm north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, but forecasters expect the islands to see heavy rain, intense waves and even tropical-storm force winds as the large storm passes by this weekend.
As for Florida, the forecast still calls for a curve north, keeping the worst of Erin’s impacts offshore. Long-range computer models are in even better agreement that this turn is coming on Monday, with almost no “spaghetti model” lines tracking toward the Sunshine State.
Despite that, it’s still unclear exactly what Florida or the eastern seaboard could see from Erin, which is expected to grow into a broad and powerful storm by the time it passes. That means its winds, waves and rains could extend far beyond the center. The latest forecast track also nudged slightly south and west, potentially bringing the outer edges of the storm’s winds and waves closer.
“There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range,” forecasters said in the Thursday mid-morning discussion.
Hurricane hunters are scheduled to explore the storm later Thursday, and the data they collect will help feed the models, making forecasts more accurate.
As of Thursday afternoon, Erin was slightly stronger, with maximum sustained winds of around 60 mph. It’s breakneck pace west had slowed a bit, to 17 mph, allowing it the opportunity to start organizing and strengthening in the warmer waters and lower shear it’s set to encounter Thursday and Friday.
The hurricane center explicitly calls for Erin to rapidly intensify before the weekend — a term used when a storm’s sustained winds get at least 35 mph stronger in 24 hours. In this case, forecasters expect Erin to leap from a Tropical Storm on Friday to a major Category 3 hurricane by Sunday.
The latest forecast calls for Erin to be at 125 mph sustained winds by Tuesday, on the verge of Category 4.
The hurricane center is also eyeing another disturbance in the Gulf, near Mexico. Thursday afternoon, the hurricane center upped the likelihood of strengthening in the next two to seven days to 40%.
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This story was originally published August 14, 2025 at 8:41 AM.
