Tropical Storm Erin likely to turn north near Caribbean
There is growing confidence that Tropical Storm Erin will curve north early next week as it approaches the Caribbean and U.S. East Coast, potentially sparing those areas the worst impacts of what could be a powerful storm.
The National Hurricane Center’s Wednesday afternoon forecast track now shows a tilt north on Monday, a move that — for now — keeps Puerto Rico and some of the eastern Caribbean islands directly out of the cone of uncertainty. Forecasters said those spots could still see “locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and tropical-storm force winds” as Erin passes the islands.
Although the Wednesday afternoon track nudged west, it still steers relatively clear of the U.S. and Bahamas. However, forecasters warned, it’s still early days for Tropical Storm Erin and things could change.
“There is a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda,” forecasters said.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Erin was still a small, relatively disorganized storm. It had begun to pick up speed, with a slightly higher maximum wind speed of 50 mph.
In about two more days, it’s expected to enter a patch of ocean that is far more favorable for strengthening, including warmer sea surface temperatures, and develop into a hurricane.
By Sunday, forecasters predict that Erin could reach sustained windspeeds of 115 mph — a Category 3 major hurricane.
On Wednesday, long-range computer models continued to consolidate on a track for Erin that includes a northern turn, meaning that fewer and fewer of the predictions include a stray track that runs over Florida.
“It remains too early to tell what if any impacts are possible in the Bahamas and USA, but while the threat appears to be decreasing, we never want to completely discount a storm in this location until it has passed us by. We never want to be surprised in hurricane season,” Craig Setzer, meteorologist for Royal Caribbean Group, posted on X.
The hurricane center is also watching one other disturbance south of the Yucatan Peninsula with a low chance of developing — 10% in the next two days or the next week.
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This story was originally published August 13, 2025 at 8:38 AM.
