‘Too early’ to know Tropical Storm Erin’s impacts on Florida, forecasters say

As Tropical Storm Erin beelines west across the Atlantic, overnight trends continue to suggest it could turn north before reaching U.S. shores.

Erin is outrunning some slightly unfriendly conditions for the next few days. Just ahead, a stretch of warmer waters and less storm-toppling wind shear could give it the opportunity to strengthen into a hurricane on Thursday and then a major — Category 3 — hurricane over the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center’s Tuesday afternoon forecast cone made no major changes, although the morning track nudged the forecast track slightly south, a trend that forecasters say could continue in the coming days. This nudge now means the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico are near the outskirts of the cone of uncertainty toward the end of the forecast window.

“The risk has increased for Erin to move closer to these islands over the weekend. Interests there should monitor the progress of this storm,” the hurricane center warned Tuesday morning.

The latest forecast cone only reaches Sunday morning, where a hint of a curve north is starting to become visible.

However, long-range global weather models have continued to trend toward a northern curve over the weekend and early into next week. As of Tuesday afternoon fewer of the outlier tracks headed toward the Caribbean and U.S. than Monday’s model runs.

“There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts, if any, might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place,” the hurricane center wrote in its Monday morning discussion.

Erin is still thousands of miles from the U.S. East Coast. Under current forecasts, it wouldn’t reach the region until the middle of next week.

The hurricane center is also tracking two other disturbances, one in the north-central Atlantic and one just off Louisiana’s coast. Neither has much of a shot of developing anytime soon. But the system near Louisiana could bring heavy rainfall, enough to spark flash flooding, as it moves inland on Tuesday.

This story was originally published August 12, 2025 at 8:35 AM.

Alex Harris

Miami Herald

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Alex Harris is the lead climate change reporter for the Miami Herald’s climate team, which covers how South Florida communities are adapting to the warming world. Her beat also includes environmental issues and hurricanes. She attended the University of Florida.