Tropical Storm Erin forms in the Atlantic. It’s worth watching
Tropical Storm Erin formed in the Atlantic Monday morning, and it’s one that forecasters say bears watching — especially for the Caribbean and Florida.
The National Hurricane Center’s initial forecast track for the fifth named storm of the season shows it headed west across the Atlantic for the next several days. Forecasters are predicting Erin will be the season’s first hurricane and first major hurricane, potentially reaching Category 3 by Saturday.
The hurricane center’s forecast only goes out to Saturday, but longer-range global weather models have continued to suggest the system could curve north around that time.
“It should be noted that spread in the track guidance, especially the ensembles, begins to increase markedly at the end of the forecast period,” NHC forecasters wrote in the 11 a.m. discussion.
As of Monday morning, Erin’s location was very far from the U.S. or the Caribbean, thousands of miles away.
“For the system to directly threaten Florida it would have to move nearly straight west for days & days. The odds of that are low but not zero,” Craig Setzer, meteorologist for Royal Caribbean Group, posted on X Monday.
Long-range computer models continue to suggest that Erin is likely to curve north over the weekend as it approaches the eastern Caribbean. By Monday afternoon, the latest sweep of fresh model runs showed even fewer tracks that approached the Caribbean or U.S., although many, many days remain before the storm is set to approach the region.
“Definitely will not rule out a further west / direct track into the U.S. east coast, but it’s the least likely scenario as of now,” Noah Bergren, senior meteorologist at Fox35 in Orlando posted on X Monday afternoon.
Should the storm reach American shores, it likely wouldn’t happen until sometime mid to late next week. Were it to head to the Caribbean, the storm could arrive in that area sooner.
The hurricane center is also watching two other disturbances in the central and northwestern Atlantic. Both have just a 10% chance of developing in the next two to seven days. A third disturbance, in the northeastern Gulf, has no chance of development in the next two to seven days. None pose a threat to land anytime soon.
This story was originally published August 11, 2025 at 8:53 AM.
