Forecasters project Tropical Storm Sara to form in the next day. What to know
By Michelle Marchante and
Devoun Cetoute
NHC
A tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea has been upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 Wednesday afternoon, and forecasters say it will affect Central America as a tropical storm.
The potential tropical cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or so, the National Hurricane Center said. Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua are forecast to feel tropical storm and hurricane conditions in the next two days.
A hurricane watch is in effect for Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas.
The system is projected to bring 10 to 20 inches of rain, with some areas seeing around 30 inches, over northern Honduras.
“This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza,” forecasters wrote in the 4 p.m. advisory.
Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua, the system is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with some places seeing 15 inches through early next week.
NHC
If Tropical Storm Sara forms, where could it go?
Forecasters are unsure of the direction in which the system will move, but the best estimates are that it will move west toward Honduras over the next few days and then meander just offshore Central America later in the week and over the weekend.
It’s still unclear if it will make landfall and, if so, for how long.
After interacting with Central America, the hurricane center said it is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida and Cuba, next week.
European, Canadian, and other hurricane models and tracks show Florida potentially in its path, NBC 6 meteorologist John Morales posted on X. However, it is too early to tell, and current weather conditions make any future outcomes highly uncertain.
Advisories were initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen (#Sara) 190 miles south of Jamaica, moving W 6 mph. Today's global ensembles for the Euro, GFS, and Canadian are shown left to right. An immediate exit northeast is no longer in the cards. C.A., MX, Cuba, FL in play pic.twitter.com/pf2HYJotos
Michelle Marchante covers the pulse of healthcare in South Florida and also the City of Coral Gables. Before that, she covered the COVID-19 pandemic, hurricanes, crime, education, entertainment and other topics in South Florida for the Herald as a breaking news reporter. She recently won first place in the health reporting category in the 2025 Sunshine State Awards for her coverage of Steward Health’s bankruptcy. An investigative series about the abrupt closure of a Miami heart transplant program led Michelle and her colleagues to be recognized as finalists in two 2024 Florida Sunshine State Award categories. She also won second place in the 73rd annual Green Eyeshade Awards for her consumer-focused healthcare stories and was part of the team of reporters who won a 2022 Pulitzer Prize for the Miami Herald’s breaking news coverage of the Surfside building collapse. Michelle graduated with honors from Florida International University and was a 2025 National Press Foundation Covering Workplace Mental Health fellow and a 2020-2021 Poynter-Koch Media & Journalism fellow. Support my work with a digital subscription
Miami Herald Cops and Breaking News Reporter Devoun Cetoute covers a plethora of Florida topics, from breaking news to crime patterns. He was on the breaking news team that won a Pulitzer Prize in 2022. He’s a graduate of the University of Florida, born and raised in Miami-Dade. Theme parks, movies and cars are on his mind in and out of the office.
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