Hurricane

There’s a high chance a depression could form in the Caribbean. What the forecast shows

Forecasters are watching a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea that has a high chance of turning into a depression later this week.
Forecasters are watching a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea that has a high chance of turning into a depression later this week. National Hurricane Center

We’re a few weeks away from the end of hurricane season, but forecasters are watching a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea that has a high chance of turning into a depression later this week.

The system was dumping rain over the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center says environmental conditions are friendly enough for the system to likely strengthen into a tropical depression in the next two to three days as it moves slowly west toward Central America.

Forecasters expect the system will “meander over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend” and will slowly move northwest early next week.

The hurricane center’s Tuesday afternoon forecast bumped the system’s formation chances higher. It now has a medium 60% chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a high 90% chance of formation through the next seven days.

It’s still too soon to know where the system will go, how strong it could be, or what type of impacts it could bring. If the system were to strengthen into a tropical storm, it would be Sara, the 18th named storm of the season.

“Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system,” forecasters say. The National Weather Service in Miami said that while the system is not a current threat, Florida should monitor the progress of the system as it’s still too soon to know where it will go.

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.

This story was originally published November 12, 2024 at 11:44 AM.

Michelle Marchante
Miami Herald
Michelle Marchante covers the pulse of healthcare in South Florida and also the City of Coral Gables. Before that, she covered the COVID-19 pandemic, hurricanes, crime, education, entertainment and other topics in South Florida for the Herald as a breaking news reporter. She recently won first place in the health reporting category in the 2025 Sunshine State Awards for her coverage of Steward Health’s bankruptcy. An investigative series about the abrupt closure of a Miami heart transplant program led Michelle and her colleagues to be recognized as finalists in two 2024 Florida Sunshine State Award categories. She also won second place in the 73rd annual Green Eyeshade Awards for her consumer-focused healthcare stories and was part of the team of reporters who won a 2022 Pulitzer Prize for the Miami Herald’s breaking news coverage of the Surfside building collapse. Michelle graduated with honors from Florida International University and was a 2025 National Press Foundation Covering Workplace Mental Health fellow and a 2020-2021 Poynter-Koch Media & Journalism fellow.  Support my work with a digital subscription
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