Progress report on Tropical Storm Rafael: Tuesday, Nov 5 update from the NHC

Article first published: Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, 4 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, 10 a.m. ET

According to the National Hurricane Center’s 10 am Tuesday advisory, Tropical Storm Rafael is 65 miles southwest of Montego Bay Jamaica and 200 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman, with maximum sustained wind of 60 mph. It’s moving at 13 mph to the northwest. Forecasters announced a tropical storm warning for the Florida Keys.

YESTERDAY (Monday):

Yesterday, the system strengthened enough to get a name: Tropical Storm Rafael. It changed first into a tropical depression and then into a tropical storm with sustained winds of 60 mph. Forecasters alert: a hurricane warning in effect for western Cuba and isle of youth.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:

- Cayman Islands

- Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

- Jamaica

- Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila

- Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge

- Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

- Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through early this afternoon and are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml? Rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and southwesternmost Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Source: National Hurricane Center

This story was originally published November 4, 2024 at 1:22 PM.