Forecasters eyeing disturbance that could bring a new storm into the Caribbean

A new storm may approach the Caribbean by the end of the week, the National Hurricane Center said.

As of Tuesday afternoon, forecasters gave a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean a 50% chance of strengthening into a tropical depression in the next seven days and a 30% chance of strengthening in the next two days. That’s a tick down from earlier in the day, and a nod to newer computer runs that suggest the storm might face several hurdles before it forms.

Currently, forecasters said, the disturbance was a disorganized cluster of thunderstorms with a defined swirl in the middle. To officially strengthen into a tropical depression, and then, potentially, a tropical storm or hurricane, the system needs to pack itself with even more rainstorms. That’s tough to do where it is right now, in a patch of dry air.

But the system is expected to keep moving west, where it could find wetter air and have a better chance of developing.

Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico

The system could approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico around Thursday or Friday — if it survives the rough conditions its stewing in. From there, global weather models are split. Some continue to take it west, through Cuba, and others curve it more northeast, back into the ocean.

At this range, those models are not designed to be very useful, experts say. Once the system is officially a tropical depression, it will be easier to track and make predictions.

“Many questions remain on both intensity and track,” wrote Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel on X.

The next name on the list is Nadine.

Central America

The hurricane center is also tracking another disturbance off the coast of Central America. Chances of formation are much lower for this one — about 20% through the next seven days and a 10% chance in the next two days.

Forecasters said it has a chance of strengthening into a tropical depression if it stays over water for the next few days, but at this point, many computer models suggest it will curve back into the coast of Central America.

“Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week,” the hurricane center wrote.

This story was originally published October 15, 2024 at 8:59 AM.

Alex Harris

Miami Herald

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Alex Harris is the lead climate change reporter for the Miami Herald’s climate team, which covers how South Florida communities are adapting to the warming world. Her beat also includes environmental issues and hurricanes. She attended the University of Florida.