System in Caribbean might not form, but Florida could still feel its heavy rains
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The chances that a storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days are dropping, but Florida could still get doused by the would-be system.
The National Hurricane Center backed off its earlier, slightly higher predictions about the chances of a system forming in the Caribbean in the next week. On Thursday afternoon, chances were down to 30% for the next seven days and no chances in the next two days.
As conditions for storm development continue to deteriorate in the Gulf, forecasters are starting to think a named storm won’t form after all. But all those rain clouds are still likely to move into the Gulf and over Florida.
“Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula next week,” forecasters wrote.
The big rain days appear to be Sunday and Monday, according to the Miami office of the National Weather Service. The chance of rain is around 30% on Sunday and up to 60% on Monday.
“The potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding continues to increase heading into next week,” forecasters wrote in the update.
Farther east in the Atlantic, two powerful storms are set to churn up the ocean this week. Although both are forecast to stay far from land, the Caribbean and southeast coast could feel some higher waters and stronger rip currents in the next week in their wake.
Hurricane Kirk was a major, Category 3 storm on Thursday morning, the farthest east in the tropical Atlantic a storm reached that category this late in the season. Its path will take it north over the next few days.
Tropical Storm Leslie, which formed on Wednesday afternoon to the east of Kirk, may follow in its footsteps. The forecast shows it gaining hurricane strength as soon as Friday evening and headed northwest. For now, that path keeps it far from land.
This story was originally published October 3, 2024 at 8:18 AM.
