A system in the Caribbean could douse Florida with rain. It could develop this week
Florida could have a wet week ahead, whether the system swirling in the Caribbean forms into a storm or not.
The National Hurricane Center is watching two disturbances with a chance of strengthening in the next week, including one that could form in the Gulf of Mexico.
As of 8 p.m. Wednesday, the hurricane center said the system had no shot at developing in the next two days and a 30% chance of developing in the next seven, a small drop after holding steady at 40% for a few days.
Forecasters have pushed back the date the system could develop to this weekend, but the higher wind shear and other storm-unfriendly conditions in the Gulf could make development difficult. Computer models suggest the system could hook over the Florida peninsula, potentially as a weaker system or even just a rainmaker.
Model guidance has been all over the place, Jackson Dill, a meteorologist at WSVN News, posted on Twitter. Some models suggest as much as 5.6 inches of rain in the Tampa Bay area over the next seven days, or as low as 2.3 inches. South Florida could get around 2 inches, those early model runs suggest.
“Regardless of formation, S. Florida will likely see days of rain with flooding possible,” he wrote.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
In the Atlantic, the hurricane center is watching newly formed Tropical Depression 13, which could become Tropical Storm Leslie as soon as Wednesday evening.
The initial forecast track shows the storm following a similar track to the storm in front of it — Hurricane Kirk. The projections show TD 13 moving northwest on a curving path that appears to keep it away from the Caribbean.
Kirk is set to strengthen to a major hurricane as soon as Thursday, but its track keeps the dangerous storm away from land. It’s a risk to the high seas, but not occupied land.
Miami Herald reporter Devoun Cetoute contributed to this report.
This story was originally published October 2, 2024 at 8:06 AM.
