When and where will Hurricane Helene hit land in Florida? What to know about arrival
When will Hurricane Helene make landfall?
“The eyewall is likely to reach the the Big Bend coastline around 8 p.m., with Helene’s center probably crossing the central Apalachee Bay shore prior to midnight,” said Ryan Truchelut, head meteorologist for Tallahassee-based WeatherTiger, a private weather forecasting service.
Truchelut estimated Helene’s arrival time near the state’s capital as the National Hurricane Center issued its 2 p.m. intermediate advisory that showed Helene’s wind strength bumped up from 105 at 11 a.m. to 110 mph three hours later — just a mile below Category 3 wind speed of 111 to 129.
That is the force, around 115, that Helene may wallop the Big Bend coast with Thursday night along with a storm surge at impact that will be highest in Carabelle, a city in Florida’s Franklin County east of Apalachicola at the mouth of the Carrabelle River on the Gulf of Mexico.
Accuweather, however, puts Helene’s arrival a couple hours later around 10 p.m. and about 40 miles to the east in the city of St. Marks as a Category 4 storm with winds between 130 and 135 mph.
“I’ve never been through the eyewall of a Category 3+ hurricane in Tallahassee, because the last time that happened was (probably) 1842,” Truchelut wrote on WeatherTiger.
Storm surge predictions
Here are the forecast storm surges in feet when Helene makes land Thursday night, according to the hurricane center.
▪ Carrabelle to the Suwannee River at 15-20 feet.
▪ Apalachicola to Carrabelle at 10-15 feet.
▪ Suwannee River to Chassahowitzka at 10-15 feet.
▪ Chassahowitzka to Anclote River at 8-12 feet.
▪ Indian Pass to Apalachicola at 6-10 feet.
▪ Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key at 5-8 feet.
▪ Tampa Bay at 5-8 feet.
▪ Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood at 4-7 feet.
▪ East of Mexico Beach to Indian Pass at 3-5 feet.
▪ Englewood to Flamingo at 3-5 feet.
▪ Charlotte Harbor at 3-5 feet.
Miami Herald staff writer Alex Harris contributed to this report.
This story was originally published September 26, 2024 at 3:09 PM.
