How much storm surge expected for Tropical Storm Helene? Will it impact the Keys? What we know
By Milena Malaver and
Devoun Cetoute
As Tropical Storm Helene bears down on Florida’s west coast over the next few days, forecasters warn of its biggest and deadliest consequence: storm surges.
In fact, forecasters are projecting that Helene’s biggest threat will be storm surge, as it’s a powerful, big and fast-moving storm expected to hit the Big Bend area of the Gulf Coast by Thursday evening.
The Florida Keys, particularly Key West, and the Dry Tortugas, are expected to see 1-3 feet of storm surge, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The biggest storm surge in the state is expected to hit the Big Bend area of the Gulf Coast, by Crystal River and Homosassa Springs, north of Tampa and New Port Richey. There, the storm surge is expected to rise up to 10 to 15 feet, hurricane center said at is 5 p.m. forecast Tuesday.
A storm surge is a combination of high tides and strong winds pushing water inland, posing a significant flooding risk to coastal communities, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The following areas in Florida are under storm surge warnings:
▪ Florida Keys: Surge of 1 to 3 feet.
▪ Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka: Water levels could rise by 10 to 15 feet.
▪ Chassahowitzka to Anclote River : Expected surges between 6 to 10 feet.
▪ Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River: Surges of 5 to 10 feet.
▪ Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key: Surges of 5 to 8 feet.
▪ Tampa Bay: Water levels are expected to rise between 5 to 8 feet.
▪ Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood: Surge of 4 to 7 feet.
▪ Englewood to Flamingo: Surge of 3 to 5 feet.
▪ Charlotte Harbor: Surge of 3 to 5 feet.
Life-threatening storm surge is forecast to plague Florida’s west coast as Tropical Storm Helene approaches in the coming days, forecasters say. NHC
When is Tropical Storm Helene expected to strengthen?
Tropical Storm Helene is expected to strengthen into a powerful hurricane by Wednesday as it enters the Gulf of Mexico. By Thursday, fueled by the warm waters of the Gulf, National Hurricane Center forecasters are expecting the storm to become a major hurricane, Category 3 or possibly higher.
Over the next 48 hours, Helene’s wind speeds are forecast to strengthen up to 115 mph before making landfall, marking it a Category 3.
Life-threatening storm surge is forecast to plague Florida’s west coast as Tropical Storm Helene approaches in the coming days, forecasters say. NHC
Which areas are at the greatest risk of flooding
The Keys are under a tropical storm warning. The region could see storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level from Wednesday night into Thursday, according to the NWS.
South Florida is at a marginal risk of experiencing any flash flooding over the next five days. Florida’s Big Bend faces the highest risk of flooding.
As for rain, South Florida should expect two to four inches, along with much of the rest of the state. The panhandle and Big Bend region will see the brunt of rainfall, with totals ranging from 4 to 8 inches — isolated areas may see up to 12 inches.
Life-threatening storm surge is forecast to plague Florida’s west coast as Tropical Storm Helene approaches in the coming days, forecasters say. NHC
This story was originally published September 24, 2024 at 6:30 PM.
Milena Malaver covers crime and breaking news for the Miami Herald. She was born and raised in Miami-Dade and is a graduate of Florida International University. She joined the Herald shortly after graduating.
