South Florida’s rain chances rise as messy tropical wave moves toward the state
South Florida could be in for rain and flooding during the weekend as a tropical wave near Haiti inches closer to the state.
The National Hurricane Center has been tracking the disorganized cluster of storms for days, but on Thursday morning forecasters began to up its chances of strengthening into a tropical depression in the next two days.
As of Thursday night, the hurricane center increased the wave’s shot of forming into a tropical depression in the next two days from 30% to 40%. It still has a 70% chance of developing during the next week.
Early models continue to show the disorganized system’s possible track shifting from Florida’s east coast to the Gulf of Mexico, although those tools aren’t very good at forecasting the movements of a system without a defined center.
Those models also now suggest the potential for the system to “stall out” as major weather forces that have been steering it for the past week begin to weaken.
“Until the system gets a low level center, models will continue to struggle. If the system does get into the Gulf of Mexico, steering currents will be light, and the system could move slowly and erratically,” meteorologist James Spann posted on X.
Hurricane-hunter planes are scheduled to investigate the broad tropical wave Friday, potentially feeding more information into the prediction models.
No matter what happens with the system, the Miami office of the National Weather Service is warning of the potential for flooding and rain in South Florida this weekend.
Thursday morning, the agency noted a limited risk of excessive rainfall on Saturday and Sunday across the southern portion of the state — potentially one or two inches in South Florida and up to 4 in spots on the west coast.
Elsewhere in the state, rainfall is forecast to be between 5 and at least 12 inches during the next seven days. This potential for severe rainfall and flooding moved Gov. Ron DeSantis to declare a state of emergency Thursday night.
Nearly all of Florida, with the exception of most of South Florida, is under the emergency order and preparing resources for a possible “major disaster.”
This story was originally published August 1, 2024 at 8:11 AM.
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