Warm waters may precipitate ‘hyperactive’ 2024 hurricane season, AccuWeather predicts

Hotter Atlantic waters could mean a “super-charged” hurricane season this year — with possibly more systems than 2023, AccuWeather predicts in its newly released seasonal forecast.

The weather forecasting service said this season could see between 20 and 25 named storms — 8 to 12 of which may be hurricanes and 4 to 7 may be major hurricanes.

Last year saw 20 named storms with seven hurricanes, four of which made landfall in the United States. Hurricane Idalia made landfall in Florida’s Big Ben as a Category 3.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ranked the 2023 season fourth for the most-named storms in a year since 1950.

“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct U.S. impacts,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to the end of November. However, warmer than average sea surface temperatures could mean systems forming before the season beginnings, AccuWeather forecasts.

Dangerous combo: Warm waters and La Niña

In late February, the Miami Herald reported the Atlantic was already seeing sea surface temperatures at early summer levels.

Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami, said water temperatures are three months ahead of schedule in the region where most hurricanes form.

“That is like hurricane season out there right now,” he said.

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High sea surface temperatures is key to more storm formations and an earlier start to hurricane season. The Atlantic still has months to continue warming before the season officially begins.

Aside from temperatures, El Niño — a storm-dampening atmospheric phenomenon — is fading fast meaning its sister phenomenon, La Niña, may come sooner. La Niña is known to reduce storm-shredding wind shear making it easier for storm formation.

McNoldy said the combination of an already warm ocean and a coming La Niña points to an active season with an above-average number of storms.

Miami Herald reporter Alex Harris contributed to this report.

Devoun Cetoute

Miami Herald

305-376-2026

Miami Herald Cops and Breaking News Reporter Devoun Cetoute covers a plethora of Florida topics, from breaking news to crime patterns. He was on the breaking news team that won a Pulitzer Prize in 2022. He’s a graduate of the University of Florida, born and raised in Miami-Dade. Theme parks, movies and cars are on his mind in and out of the office.