Disturbance near South Florida not likely to strengthen. Another threatens Caribbean
.png "The National Hurricane Center was monitoring two disturbances on Thursday, Nov. 16, 2023. National Hurricane Center")
Forecasters are tracking a tropical disturbance Thursday that will likely not morph into a storm, but has been causing downpours and floods across South Florida and the Keys and is likely to lead to more heavy rains over the next day or so.
Another disturbance could shape up to become a tropical depression threatening portions of the Caribbean Sea and beyond, including Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica.
Here’s what the National Hurricane Center said about the two disturbances in its latest Thursday afternoon advisory:
Disturbance off Florida’s coast
An area of low pressure is moving between southern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas, the hurricane center said in its 1 p.m. advisory.
“Development of this system into a tropical cyclone is not expected,” the hurricane center said. “However, gusty winds and heavy rains are still possible across portions of the east coast of Florida and the Bahamas during the next day or so while the low moves northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic.”
▪ Formation chance through 48 hours: 0%
▪ Formation chance through seven days: 0%
Disturbance in the Caribbean
Satellite data shows that the circulation of a low pressure system over the west-central Caribbean Sea remains broad, but the disturbance is causing plenty of showers and thunderstorms, the hurricane center said.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or two while the low moves northeastward toward Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba.”
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate the system. The hurricane center is advising Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands to monitor the disturbance.
“Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains which would likely result in flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the Greater Antilles, particularly over Jamaica and Hispaniola, through this weekend.”
▪ Formation chance through 48 hours: 70%
▪ Formation chance through seven days: 70%
This story was originally published November 14, 2023 at 9:54 PM with the headline "Disturbance near South Florida not likely to strengthen. Another threatens Caribbean."
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