Disturbance near Bahamas may strengthen into tropical storm. What the forecast says
As the National Hurricane Center stopped monitoring Tropical Storm Tammy, forecasters say one of the two remaining systems in the Atlantic Ocean may strengthen into a tropical storm or depression.
If and when it forms into a storm, the disturbance closest to Florida would be called Tropical Storm Vince.
Here’s what’s happening with the two remaining tropical systems, according to the latest hurricane center updates:
Will the disturbance near Bahamas become a tropical storm?
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigated a broad area of low pressure, AL96, located a couple of hundred miles east of the central Bahamas, the hurricane center said in its 8 p.m. advisory.
“...The system [does] not possess a well-defined surface circulation, but was producing winds around 40 mph on its northeastern side,” the hurricane center said. “Shower and thunderstorm activity persists, but the system only has limited time to develop into a short-lived tropical depression or storm over the next day or so as it moves slowly west-northwestward.
By Tuesday, however, the hurricane center said that strong upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances of further development while it turns northward,
Formation chance through 48 hours: 40%, down from 60% at the 2 p.m. Sunday advisory.
Formation chance through seven days: 40%, down from 60% at the 2 p.m. Sunday advisory.
Will AL96 impact South Florida?
It’s unlikely that AL96, the system near Bahamas, will have any major impact in South Florida, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.
“The only impact it would have in South Florida would be increased moisture over the local waters,” weather service meteorologist Jennifer Simmons told the Miami Herald on Sunday afternoon.
Simmons said that a trough, an elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure, is expected to keep the disturbance away from the state.
The workweek in South Florida will start with temperature highs in the mid to upper 80s and mostly dry, the weather service said on X, formerly Twitter. The lows are forecast to be 65 to 70 degrees on Monday and 75 to 80 on Tuesday.
“Tuesday PM should be perfect for a night of trick or treating!” the weather service said.
What’s happening with the disturbance in the Caribbean?
A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea, the hurricane center said in its 8 p.m. Sunday advisory.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph towards Central America,” the hurricane center said.
Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0%
Formation chance through seven days: 30%
This story was originally published October 28, 2023 at 6:15 PM.
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