Category 3 Hurricane Lee forecast to begin northern turn in the middle of the week
Hurricane Lee stayed a Category 3 Saturday afternoon, but should slowly regain strength as storm-destroying wind shear eases over open waters of the west Atlantic..
Lee remains a powerful hurricane as it treks west-northwest over the next few days on a path that keeps it clear of inhabited land until at least next week, when its future grows a little more uncertain.
While the National Hurricane Center’s forecast cone stretches out only over the next five days, the storm is predicted to take a sharp north turn away from the U.S. East Coast.
The hurricane center is also tracking a second system, Tropical Storm Margot, which was still far from land as of 5 p.m. Saturday.
The two systems were lined up, almost like headlights on a car, on the hurricane center’s map of the tropics Saturday.
Tracking Hurricane Lee
The latest forecast takes Lee west-northwest over the weekend, where it’s encountering storm-disrupting wind shear that should lessen over the next couple days, allowing the hurricane to strengthen.
Any restrengthening will be gradual, forecasters say, with Lee hitting a ceiling of 140 mph winds on Monday or Tuesday — becoming a Category 4 again.
As of the 5 p.m. Saturday update, Lee was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph sustained winds about 310 miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands. It was headed west-northwest at 10 mph, and its hurricane-force winds extended up to 40 miles from the center while tropical storm-force winds extended 185 miles from the center.
Phil Ferro, chief meteorologist for WSVN-Channel 7, said on Friday that although the models have high confidence in Lee’s future turn, the atmosphere is “ever-changing” and everyone from Bermuda to the northeast coast of the U.S. should keep an eye on the storm.
“What, if any, impacts it will bear next week on its path are still uncertain. While it remains very far away, keep checking in from time to time for updates,” he posted on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter.
Rough surf ahead
If Hurricane Lee stays as far offshore as current forecast models suggest, Florida’s biggest impact from the storm could be rough waves and rip currents.
South Florida could see an increasing risk of dangerous marine, surf and beach conditions, including deadly rip currents, developing as early as Monday, according to Miami National Weather Service meteorologist Luke Culver. “Swells will gradually build through the week, potentially bringing a threat of beach erosion from rough and pounding surf across multiple high tide cycles late in the week.”
Lee models predict a northern turn
“On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico into early next week,” hurricane specialist Daniel Brown wrote in Saturday afternoon’s advisory.
By early next week, the hurricane center’s cone shows a full northern turn away from the eastern coast that forecast models have been holding steady on for nearly a week .
Nearly all global models have been suggesting a northern turn is imminent for the storm. But the models disagree on when, exactly, the beast of a storm could begin to twist north.
Most models suggest a turn in the middle of next week, while Hurricane Lee is still well north of even the northernmost Caribbean islands.
Tropical Storm Margot
Tropical Storm Margot had strengthened over the open tropical eastern Atlantic Saturday morning and is expected to gradually continue as the night comes.
Margot is about 1,020 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving west-northwest at 12 mph.
Margot’s winds held at 45 mph with higher gusts Saturday afternoon. The storm is expected to strengthen gradually and become a hurricane next week in open waters and remain so into Thursday.
A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected through early Sunday. A north-northwest to north motion is forecast to begin by late Sunday, the hurricane center’s afternoon report said.
Tropical storm-force winds extend 45 miles from the center.
This story was originally published September 8, 2023 at 5:15 PM.
